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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Chinese economy in trouble?

Please first see my posts here:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/09/shanghai-composite-at-important-support.html

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/09/charts-telling-tail-of-economic-future.html

I have not been a great fan of the Chinese economic miracle. I have seen it before during the 80's in Japan. The headlines was pretty much the same as they are today and look where the Japanese economy is to day.
I do think the ones betting on China to pull the global economy is wrong, very wrong. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see China drag us even deeper into a global recession.

The Shanghai Composite (the upper chart) has broken below important support and is now headed for next support at 2,319 and below here will be very bad for the ones having hopes for the Chinese economy.


The chart just above is showing USD ag. CNY. Since mid-2005 we have seen the CNY get stronger, but it might soon be over. The technical picture is not pretty as can be seen. Since mid-2008 a major divergence have been building. That said a break above the long term falling trend line is needed to confirm a weaker CNY, but the building blocks is there...




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