USD at a long term bottom?

The EUR/USD picture (see the chart below) has become very cloudy this last couple of weeks. I have been looking for one last high in EUR/USD to end the ending diagonal since 118.75, but no new top has been seen yet. As long as support at 140.09 isn't broken to the downside we could still see this new high above 149.39, but any break below 140.09 would cripple that posibility.

Looking at the USD-Index might help us a little. The picture is pretty much the same as for EUR/USD. Ideally we should see one last low below 72.69 finishing the ending diagonal, but we have only seen a decline to 73.42. If we break above 75.75 the possibility for the new low would be cripple here too and call for a truncated wave e. A break above 75.75 should set us up for a quick test of resistance at 76.71 and above here will confirm the truncation and confirm that an important low is in place.

As I said a couple of days ago USD/CHF could be at or very close to an important low here too. The most likely scenario will be, that we will see a periode where we more or less trades sideways, before breaking up in earnest. The other possibility will be a "V" shaped bottom, where we will see USD/CHF speed ahead higher. We will need a break above 84.00 just to be able to suggest that the bottom is in, but lets try to fine tune as we get more evidence.

USD/JPY much to my surprise has made a new low. The best fit here againe seems to be, that an ending diagonal is building. We might still see a lower low, but all demands is now fulfilled and any break above 82.23 would indicate that the bottom is in place. A break above 85.54 will confirm the bottom for a rally back to near 115.00.

As long as 81.48 protects the upside we could see a new low, but and break above 81.48 will weaken the call for a new low, while the break above 82.23 will invalidate any call for a new low.