Translate

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

S&P 500 - Time to take a breather

The decline over the last 13 days has erased almost 17% since the 1,347 high. Yesterday we pushed through the S/H/S target near 1,146. Short term the S&P 500 have become extremly oversold and it's time to take a breather. I will expect a correction towards at least 1,173 and possibly even the 1,206 - 1,220 area before the next pressure to the downside can be expected.

Looking at the VIX-Index (see below) We can see, that we entered the extrem fear area yesterday at the same time we closed near the May 21 - 2010 high. At the same time there is a possibility, that we are looking at the Parent fractal to the child fractal from late 2007 to late 2008 (the to blue boxes below). If this is the case we should see a move higher in the S&P 500 very soon (likely already today).

Finally we are way outside the upper Boillinger Band, which should produce a rally in the S&P 500 soon. All in all I think it's time for the stocks to calme down for a little while to catch its breath. But be very Carefull this is extrem times...



No comments:

Post a Comment