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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

VIX & S&P 500 - Do we really need one more new high?


Yesterday I wrote that the decline from 1,213.86 was a five wave decline, which would call for a three legged rally towards 1,204 before a new decline to at least 1,175 should be seen, but the rally went well beoynd 1,204, whats more important the shape is of concern as it looks like a running triangle. If it's a running triangle we should see one more rally higher towards the 1,214 area today, before prices collapses.

This also fits the VIX-count, shown below.


An Ending Diagonal (ED) is shaping up, we just need one more decline to just below 15.23 ending the final leg v down in the ED, which should be followed by a powerfull thrust
to the upside.

If you shorted the S&P 500 yesterday near the 1,204 area you could choose to close the position on a break above 1,208.07 and re-sell near the 1,214 target area or you could just hold on to your position waiting for prices to collapse from near the 1,214 area.

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