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Thursday, April 15, 2010

DJI and S&P 500 - Wave E of the Expanding Diagonal can end any time now


Wave E have now broken slightly above the Expanding Diagonal resistance line, which will mark a typical exhaustion signal. A close back below the resistance line will confirm the exhaustion, while a break below short term key support at 10.948,08 will confirm the top.


Looking at the S&P 500, the picture is identical. A close below the Expanding Diagonal resistance line will confirm exhaustion, while a break below short term support at 1.188,91 will confirm the top.
The VIX-Index (see the chart below) close below the lower Bollinger band has confirmed the bearish set-up for the equity markets and it's just a matter of time before a top will be found.
Only question that will remain is if this is the "BIG" top or just a short term top. I personaly will trade it as the "BIG" top ending wave [B], but time will show. The uptrend since March 9, 2009 has been a very hard to deciffer, but for me it's not a question if this is a bearmarket rally or a impulsive five wave rally. The uptrend eventhough it has been impresive in many ways is way top sloppy top be counted as an impulsive five wave rally. Take a look at the supposed wave 3. The Elliott Wave Principle stats that wave 3 are "wonders to behold", this wave 3 is absolutly no wonder to behold.






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