Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

As long as support at 124.87 protects the downside I'm still looking for one last rally to a new high slightly above 131.12. However, it should be remembered, that we are in the absolute final stages of the rally, which started at 94.10 and once this rally completes I expect a big correction towards at least the 118.73 - 119.10 area. Even though I expect one more rally higher, the possible odds, that wave 5 already is in place is so high, that I'm  more focused on the downside risk. A break below 127.15 and more importantly a break below 124.87 will increase the downside pressure and indicate, that wave 5 did indeed end at 131.12.

EUR/NZD

I'm looking for one last decline in wave c of an expanded flat correction, which are developing in wave ii. Short term I expect minor resistance at 1.5483 will protect the upside for this last decline towards the 1.5361 - 1.5375 area, with a possibility of an extension towards the 1.5319, but looking at the structure I do think the risk of an early termination, of this expanding flat, is more likely. From 1.5375 or upon a break above 1.5527 I expect to see a powerful wave iii higher towards at least 1.5853, but an extension of wave iii is more likely, which would push wave iii higher towards 1.6148 and possibly even higher towards 1.6330.

Elliott wave analysis on Gold, Crude Oil, Facebook and Apple

 Gold

Is well under way to my target at 1,250. Currently we have seen blue wave iii Down to 1,322, where blue wave iii was 2.618 time the length of blue wave i. We should see a series of wave iv and v developing in the coming days/weeks.

 Crude Oil.

Failed to break out of its triangle towards the upside and has instead broken towards the downside, but we need a break below 84.07 to confirm a continuation Dow towards strong support at 75.62.
But only a break out of the long term sideways consolidation will really get Things going here.

Facebook

After a perfect five wave rally of the low at 24.98 we are currently in wave ii of 5. Longer term I'm looking for a rally towards the 33.44 - 34.10 area, which will terminate wave I of A. Short term I looking for wave ii of 5 to terminate in the 26.00 - 26.40 area from where the next powerful rally is expect to develop. At no point can a break below 24.98 be accepted as that would invalidate my bullish Count.

Apple

Is getting close to my ideal target at 391, from where I expect a rally towards at least 594.
Even if we manage to break below 391, the downside should be limited to the 360 - 365 area, so we are getting close to a very nice buying opportunity.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY - Weekly

I have been studying Glenn Needly's (Neowave) time rules yesterday and I need a little more time checking different things out, so this morning you have a "brief" update only.

As can be seen we have a clear five wave rally from 94.10, what we are trying to establish is whether wave 5 is in place already or more upside action is to be seen.

It's clear that wave 3 was the extended wave and that often means that there will be equality between the two other impulsive wave, which in this case is wave 1 and 5. Looking at them wave 5 currently is a little longer that wave 1, but they are close enough to be as equal as one can expect.

If we measure the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 we can see that wave 5 is almost 38.2% of that distance, so we have two demands fulfilled for a possible wave 5 top in place.

Nguyen yesterday point out, that wave 5 is to short time wise to fulfill Glenn Needly's time rule, which states that two waves next to each other, the smallest of the waves (time wise) should be at least 1/3 of the longer wave, which in this case means, that wave 5 should take at least 2,66 weeks and it has only taken 2 weeks till now, that means we should see more upside pressure this week, but does we need a new higher high? knowing Needly's work then the answer is no. He more than any other analyst, I know, works with termination points below a top or bottom. That is not to say that we have seen the final high at 131.12, I still think that one more new high would fit my picture better, but the break below 126.03 did confuse the overall picture and if my count is correct, the only possible impulsive move, where that is allowed is in an ending diagonal.

EUR/NZD - Weekly

Only made it to 1.5402 yesterday and has already broken above the top at 1.5558, but is wave ii finished? I don't think so. I think an expanded flat correction is building and that means that we should soon see a new downturn towards the ideal target area between 1.5263 - 1.5319. Wave ii will likely terminate closer to 1.5319 than 1.5263, but only time will tell.

Looking at the larger picture it's clear that the possible upside potential is huge and the minimum target for this rally is close to 1.6973, but I still think we will see much higher levels longer term.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The break below my invalidation point at 126.03 we are left with two options. 1: The entire five wave rally rally since 94.10 ended with the test of 131.12 and if this is the case we are looking for a large corrective wave 2 down to at least 118.73. Looking at the decline from 131.12 is does have impulsive characteristics, which would be what we are looking for in a simple zig-zag correction. The second option is that some kind of ending diagonal is developing calling for one more high above 131.12. I do not favor this options, as ending diagonal is made up of five three wave moves, which does not fit this the rally from 118.73. The reason why I'm hesitating a bit calling the top is, that the EWO-indicator does not show us any significant divergence, which I would normally expect at the end of a rally of this degree.

EUR/NZD

My description of the rally higher yesterday has been a perfect match. With the slight break above the 1.5512 top confirms, that an important bottom is in place at 1.5080 and that a new major rally is developing. We have wave i of this new major rally in place and are now looking for wave ii. This wave ii should correct between 50% and 61.8% of wave i, which would mean a decline towards the 1.5263 - 1.5319 area before the next rally higher. However, we must remember that second waves are allowed to correct even more of wave i. Once this wave ii correction is over we should see and even more powerful rally high towards at least 1.6100, but I would not be surprised to see an even bigger rally towards 1.6578. But for now we should remain focused on the wave ii correction towards the 1.5263 - 1.5319 area.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The wave iv of 5 correction I where expecting, has worked out nicely. We have already seen a small break below 127.70 with a low at 127.55 so the absolute minimum correction is fulfilled, but will we see more downside pressure? I don't expect much more downside pressure from here. Instead I expect a rally to set in soon for a move towards the 130.07 - 130.34 area in wave b of a possible triangle. Let it be said instantly, that I have no evidence, that a triangle might be building, but I do think it is a qualified guess, as I expect a complex correction in wave iv of 5 and a triangle will fit nicely into that expectation. It is also important to mention, that we should not see a break below the wave i of 5 high at 126.04 as that would leave us with an overlap between wave i and iv, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle when an impulsive rally is unfolding.

EUR/NZD

The rally from the 1.5080 low does have all the characteristics of an impulsive rally, but we still need a break above 1.5521 to confirm, that an important low is in place at 1.5080. If/when we break above resistance at 1.5521 I'm expecting that a new major rally is unfolding for a rally higher towards at least 1.6366 and likely even higher in the longer term. Short term I'm looking for a minor support at 1.5307 to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 1.5490 from where we should some sideways consolidation before that last rally above important resistance at 1.5521. Once a new high, slightly above 1.5521 is set we should expect a correction towards the 1.5250 - 1.5305 area, from where an even more powerful rally is expected.

Elliott wave analysis of gold

Gold

Please take a look at my long term Count for gold here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/06/gold-is-shine-about-to-disappear.html

I know that on my long term I have the top at 1,920 as wave 5, but looking at the EWO indicator it only looks as it was wave 3 and the ongoing correction is wave 4 and wave 5 should follow once this correction is finished.

The first target I'm looking for after the break below strong support at 1,521 is at 1,250, but I would not be surprised to see it move even lower. However for now 1,250 does seem far away.

Thinking about it, a bigger correction after a rally of 655% does not seem that outrages does it?


Short term I expect a minor reaction back towards 1,520, but then more downside pressure should follow.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With a high at exactly 130.90 my ideal target has been hit and we expects wave iv of 5 to develop. Wave iv of 5 is expected to be a relatively small and complex correction. Ideally it will be a triangle, but only time will tell. The ideal target for wave iv of 5 is at 127.89, but the area stretching from 127.70 - 128.40 is one big support-area. Short term I expect minor resistance at 130.81 will protect the upside for a break below 130.07 and more importantly a break below 129.75 that will confirm that wave iv of 5 is indeed unfolding. That said, as long as support at 129.75 has not been broken we must accept the possibility of further upside pressure, but we do think that the possible upside potential is very limited from here.

EUR/NZD

The break below 1.5173 invalidated my bullish count. I have changed our count slightly, marking the bottom at 1.5173 as wave iii of c and the top at 1.5521 as wave iv of c and the decline to 1.5080 was most likely wave v of c. As can be seen on the chart above the price quickly turned once 1.5080 was hit and performed a morning star candle, which is a sign of exhaustion. However we need more prof, that a bottom is indeed in place and a break above 1.5224 we be the first indication, that the test of 1.5080 was indeed the bottom, while a break above 1.5373 is needed to confirm the bottom and confirm the next powerful rally higher.

To be honest the new count for wave c is a much better fit, but some times one can't see the Wood for trees....