Armstrong and Brenner cycles

It has been a while since I have looked at the Armstrong and Brenner cycles. Starting with the Armstrong economic cycle (the chart above). It can be seen that the economy should peak in February 2007 (The February 24.th to be precise). Projecting that over to the equity market, we know that they peaked in late October 2007. The economic down cycle should continue to April 19.th according to Amstrong.

Looking at the Brenner Cycle (see the chart below - Sorry for the quality, but it's an old handdrawn chart, but it should last my lift time or at least as long as I'm trading...)
The Brenner Cycle shows that we should see a top in 2010 followed by a decline into 2011.
According to the Brenner Cycle chart, the 2011 should not be a panic low, but as we saw in 2008-2009 the decline still could be very severe.

An other important issue is the risk of an inversion of the cycle. There is no telling if a inversion will be seen, but we saw an cycle inversion in March/April 2009 (probably because of FED's QE1). The risk of a new inversion (this time negativ for the economy) is obviouse, but not a giving case. No matter if an inversion will be seen or not, the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011 could be a major disappointment for many investores.

The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle

On page 151 in the Elliott Wave Principle, A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter has and illustration of the Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Chart 1902-1987.

I have updated the chart from 1987-2041. As can be seen the chart shows that a top should be found i 2010 and a low in 2011. The low in 2011 is not a panic low as 1987 and 2003 was.

Benner himself noted in respect to the economic lows (stock prices low), that they followed two time series. One follwed a 20-18-16 year serie indicating "bad times" (1987 and 2003), while the less "bad times" followed a 16-18-20 year serie in the chart illustrated by 1995 and 2011.

Economic peaks (stock market highs) follwed a 8-9-10 year time serie. As can be seen above year 2000 was a important high, while 1991 was less important. The 2010 high in that respect is a less important high than what 2018 will be.

Martin Armstrong later discovered the 8.6 year cycle. The Chart below shows his Economic Confidence Model, which shows when the US economy peaks and bottoms out. As can be seen the economic confidence should have seen a minor peak on April 19, 2009 and continued to worsen untill June 13, 2011. Instead of a continued worsening of the US economy (and global economy) the US and other Governments injected major stimulus. The major centralbanks printed money, bought bad debt from the banks ect., which caused an inversion in the cycles, that inversion is still ongoing, but due to Benner's cycle that should end some time during 2010 (my best bet would som time during second quater 2010 - April or May?) and cause bigger deterioration in the economy as a catch-up effect.

Therefore, when Governments finally stop stimulating the global economy the crash following could very well be much bigger than Benner's cycle would otherwise indicate.