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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle


On page 151 in the Elliott Wave Principle, A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter has and illustration of the Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Chart 1902-1987.


I have updated the chart from 1987-2041. As can be seen the chart shows that a top should be found i 2010 and a low in 2011. The low in 2011 is not a panic low as 1987 and 2003 was.



Benner himself noted in respect to the economic lows (stock prices low), that they followed two time series. One follwed a 20-18-16 year serie indicating "bad times" (1987 and 2003), while the less "bad times" followed a 16-18-20 year serie in the chart illustrated by 1995 and 2011.


Economic peaks (stock market highs) follwed a 8-9-10 year time serie. As can be seen above year 2000 was a important high, while 1991 was less important. The 2010 high in that respect is a less important high than what 2018 will be.


Martin Armstrong later discovered the 8.6 year cycle. The Chart below shows his Economic Confidence Model, which shows when the US economy peaks and bottoms out. As can be seen the economic confidence should have seen a minor peak on April 19, 2009 and continued to worsen untill June 13, 2011. Instead of a continued worsening of the US economy (and global economy) the US and other Governments injected major stimulus. The major centralbanks printed money, bought bad debt from the banks ect., which caused an inversion in the cycles, that inversion is still ongoing, but due to Benner's cycle that should end some time during 2010 (my best bet would som time during second quater 2010 - April or May?) and cause bigger deterioration in the economy as a catch-up effect.


Therefore, when Governments finally stop stimulating the global economy the crash following could very well be much bigger than Benner's cycle would otherwise indicate.


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