Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - Is about to lose a lot of friends

Facebook - Is about to lose a lot of friends 

Since the September 2012 low at 17.55 FB has rally almost 690% and gather a lot of friends. However, FB is about to lose some of its friends in the months ahead. 

From an Elliott Wave perspective a five wave rally has been seen of the 17.55 low. The Elliott Wave Principle states that after a five wave rally a corrective decline should be seen. The five wave rally  in wave [3] from 17.55 most likely ended at 121.08 and a corrective decline in wave [4] is about to unfold.

So where can we expect wave [4] to end? Normally the low of wave 4 of one lessor degree, will be the main attraction. In the case of FB that means a decline to 72.00 or very close to a 50% correction of wave [3].

Since the low of wave 4 of [3] we have seen a pretty slow rally with overlapping waves, which is the signature for an ending diagonal. Once the ending diagonal is complete a decline back to the origin (in this case the low of wave 4 at 72.00) should be seen within half the time it took the ending diagonal to build. As it took 37 weeks for the ending diagonal in wave 5 of [3] to build, we should expect a decline back to the 72.00 low within 18.5 weeks.

The trigger for the expected decline, will be a break below the ending diagonal support-line near 116.00 and confirmation that a top is in place and the correction in wave [4] is developing will be a break below support at 106.31.

Even though a quick decline to 72.00 is expected, the entire structure of wave [4] will most likely be much more complex. The Alternation Principle says, that if wave [2] was a simple correction and it was, as it unfolded as a zig-zag, then wave [4] should become complex and take up time. So we could be looking forward to a combination of corrections or a triangle as wave [4], only time will tell. However, the important thing here is that we have a very good idea, what to expect from wave [4].    

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