Dow Jones Industrial - Long Term View
Way back in March 2012 I posted some interesting Fibonacci relationships for the rally from the 1932 low.
Then the next relationship was the 2008 + 5 = 2013. However, 2013 went and nothing happened, but here we are again at an interesting year as 2008 + 8 = 2016 indicating a possible top some time during this year.
I of cause can't say with any degree of certainty why the Fibonacci series was broken, but I do think FED distorted the normal cycle, by QE 1,2 and 3 and thereby moved the cycle towards the next Fibonacci number.
I have been working the expanded triangle consolidation for years, but I have of cause some alternate count, which could be possible counts too. Only the alternate count #2 allows for a move slightly higher to 20,098 before wave [III] finally is in place and a major correction in wave [IV] develops.
All the three counts calls for wave [IV] either unfolding already or beginning to unfold soon.
If we apply the Alternation Principle wave [II] was a simple and deep decline, which means that [IV] should be complex shallow (this is the primarily reason, why I favor the expanding triangle count). The ideal bottom for wave [IV] should be expected in 2021:
2000 + 21 = 2021
2008 + 13 = 2021
2016 + 5 = 2021 (the cycle jumped one number, like because of FED and the QE).
ALTERNATE COUNT #1
ALTERNATE COUNT #2
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This is excellent.
ReplyDeleteThe only challenge with the DJIA is getting data that goes as far back as the 1800s when the index was first introduced. Taking the peak of 1929 as wave[I] is the logical thing to do but i have seen Robert Prechter do data stitching which gives it a different count.