We have seen the expected rally higher in a complex correction in blue wave ii. The correction went a little higher than I expected, as we have seen a high at 131.56. However, we should soon begin to see renewed downside pressure for a break below support at 131.12 and more importantly a break below support at 130.79, which confirms, that blue wave ii is over and blue wave iii lower has taken over for a decline towards at least 1.2607 and maybe even lower. Longer term I'm looking for a decline towards very strong support at 124.96 and if this support breaks I will be looking for a continuation lower towards 118.73.
We should be in the very early parts of red wave iii higher. Red wave iii is most likely to become an extended wave and should at least reach 1.7326, but could well extend much further, which only time will tell. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6693 to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.6738 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6790, which will confirm the next powerful rally higher towards 1.7045. However, if support at 1.6693 should be broken, the downside should be limited and only a break below 1.6600 will invalidate my bullish Count.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeletethe EJ high currently stands at 131.94 - it looks like a nice pinbar is forming. Would you still consider this the high of wave ii?
Thanks,
Heiko
High again,
ReplyDeleteit seems EURGBP is breaking out of a long term down trend line starting in 2009...
Could you be so nice and give us your EW view on this?
Thank you and have a good weekend,
Heiko
Hi HaiGo,
DeleteYes I still regard the rally in EUR/JPY as wave ii. It will take a break above 132.74 to invalidate that Count.
I will take a look at EUR/GBP, but I agree with your view, that we are break above the Falling trend-resistance from 2009. However, I would like to see a break above 0.8815, which will open up the upside for a rally towards at least 0.9867 and possibly even higher.
I good weekend to you too.
Kind regards
EWS
HI T
ReplyDeleteNIce analysis eur/jpy look to short it below 130.79 as this rally is looking out of steam but I am concerned about gbp/dollar which tells us that weekly triangle and after wave 4 we have seen 1 2 rally and current rally to the upward seems to be a part of wave ii of 3 and with a break below 1.5100 and 1.5024 you think wave iii of 3 starts and what will be invalidate point and what about the count
please update
regards