Do we have an important top in place? I think we are close, but not quite there yet. That said we are clearly in wave v of C and we could run in to THE top any time, so it would be prudent, at least in my eyes, to either place a stop on longs or reduce the exposure up here in the very lofty area.
If would want to be riding this uptrend for as long as possible, then place a stop. I would recommend a stop just below 15,075.00. If this rally has more upside potential we should not see a break below 15.075 and more importantly we should not see a break below 14,551.00 if this happens. we have wave D of the expanding triangle in place and wave E is developing.
This wave ii of 3 has really been a pain. The maximum this wave ii could have corrected would have been 100% of wave 2, which would be to 1.3416, but not a single pip above here. If this happens the bearish Count is wrong and we should look for much more upside action. However, as long as important resistance at 1.3416 protects the upside, my bearish Count stands and I will be looking for a break below 1.3265 and more importantly a break below 1.3187 as confirmation, that wave ii of 3 did end at 1.3400 and wave iii of 3 lower is developing.
Let's start with determining that we are in wave 4. This wave 4 should be a flat correction or a triangle. It's to early to say yet, which it will be, so I would go with the most likely possibility and that's a flat correction. The flat correction would call for a move higher towards 156.87 (we don't have get all the way up there, but close to should be enough to fulfill the pattern) and then one last decline, in wave c, towards strong support near 147.00 before we will finally see wave 5 higher.
Good evening EWS:
ReplyDeleteHace a great time in Florence, Happy holidays.
Greetings from the south of spain, and the north of Africa