Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With the break below support at 131.05 we have gotten the first sign, that the b-wave rally since the 124.96 low is becoming weaker. It is still to early to tell whether wave b has terminated or we can expect more upside, closer towards the former top at 133.81. To confirm that wave b has terminated we need a break below strong support at 129.67 as long as this support protects the downside we should stay focused towards the upside for a continuation of this bumpy b-wave, closer towards the former top at 133.81. However a break below 129.67 will confirm, that the b-wave has terminated and wave c lower towards at least 124.96 and possibly lower has taken over.

EUR/NZD

Yesterday we did see a break above resistance at 1.6638, but the break was not sustained and the following decline has been deep. However, I'm convinced that we have seen the low of wave ii at 1.6427 and it is just a matter of time before we will see the next powerful rally higher towards at least 1.6815 short term. Longer term I'm looking for wave iii higher towards at least 1.7364 and possibly much higher. Wave ii has been an expanded flat correction and the impulsive rally to follow an expanded flat correction will likely be an extended rally it self, therefore a rally to minimum 1.7364, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i should be expected. At this point only a break below 1.6427 will force me to change my count, but the possibly downside should be limited to 1.6383 and just maybe 1.6338 before the next rally higher.