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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Elliott wave anlysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and DJI

 EUR/USD - We have now seen a break above the top of the triangles B-wave confirming that the triangle did indeed end at 1.2891 and wave 5 is under way towards 1.3315 as the ideal target for wave 5. Short term we should see some consolidation before the next leg higher, but don't expect a move lower than 1.3055, before the next march higher.
 GBP/USD - Is currently trying to break above the resistance line from the 1.6310 high and a break above here will confirm that wave 2 is indeed over and we should see a rally higher towards first 1.6310 and then likely 1.6747. If this resistance breaks too, then we should be looking for much higher levels longer term.
 EUR/JPY - Has been the mirror of EUR/USD or should I say that EUR/USD has been the mirror of EUR/JPY as this cross leads the way. EUR/JPY had already broken above the triangle wave b high yesterday and EUR/USD followed along a little later.
The ideal target for wave 5 is at 104.72 (I have marked it with the blue arrow.
 EUR/NZD - Should find support at 1.5945 for the next rally higher towards 1.6127 and 1.6215 as the powerful wave 3 unfolds. Don't be tricked by this small set-back it's just designed to get the weak hands out of the way.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - It has been a while since I have last spoken about this index, but then not much has happened the last five weeks, but something will happen soon. We could see a short lived overshoot of the long term resistance line (blue), but the divergence on the EWO indicator is so outspoken that we shouldn't expect to much upside action. I consider the downside to be where the danger is and a break below 13,296 confirms a move lower towards at least 12,729. 

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