Elliott wave analysis of EUR/TRY and AUD/NZD

 EUR/TRY - It has been quite a while since I have last spoken about this cross, so please take a look at my post from July 30 first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-usdjpy_30.html.
Once the cross broke below 241.28 in early January 2012 I just kept holding on to my call for a decline to the double top target near 2.20 and made a very nice 8% profit on this cross and that is without the interest premium gained from be long TRY.
On July 30 I called for a correction towards 2.3062 in wave 4. However we have seen a move higher to 2.3662. The question whether we have seen the top of wave 4? A break below 2.3200 will be the first indication, that this is the case, while a break below 2.2988 will confirm, that wave 4 did indeed end at 2.3662 and wave 5 down to below 2.1829 is under way.
The risk is a break above 2.3662, which would call for a move higher towards 2.3842 and maybe even 2.4205 before down.

AUD/NZD - Could a big decline be just ahead in this cross? A clear break below support at 1.2316 will call for a much deeper decline, as that would trigger a big Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top with a target at 1.0935. The risk is a more prolonged consolidation above 1.2316 as a second right shoulder could be building, but longer term I still think that the real risk is to the downside here.