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Saturday, April 14, 2012

Natural Gas has hit its long term target - Bottom in place?


Natural Gas - Looking at the bigger picture Natural Gas have been in a major downward correction since December 2005. It has unfolded in a major [A] - [B] - [C] correction:
Wave [A]: Fell from 15.78 in December 2005 to 4.05 in September 2006
Wave [B]: Rose from 4.05 in September 2005 to 13.69 in July 2008 and finally
Wave [C]: Fell from 13.69 in July 2008 to 1.96 (where wave [C] will be equal in length to wave [A])?

It's still to early to tell if we saw the bottom on Friday when we saw a test of 1.96, but looking at the week chart (upper chart) we can see that we have meet strong support at 1.96 at the same time the [B] wave triangle had its apex on the same day and finally we can see the RSI showing Divergence on the last decline (not yet confirmed), but all signs point towards an important bottom being in place or a bottom soon to be in place.

Zooming in to the 4 hour chart. we saw a wave 4 triangle, which tells us the final downward thrust will be the last decline in the sequence from 4.10. On Friday we also saw a Tweezers bottom (two candles with the same low) making the odds for an important bottom being in place bigger. We now need a break above 2.07 to ease the short term downside pressure, while a break above 2.20 will add confidence in the bottom being in place and call for a rally towards 4.35 as the first major upside target.



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