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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and EUR/JPY

 EUR/USD - I still view the decline from 132.26 to 131.03 as Impulsive, but that means the correction from 131.03 very soon should find a top for a decline below 131.83 and more importantly 131.47, that will confirm a new decline below 131.03 on the way down towards 129.93.
Long term I'm looking for a decline towards strong long term support near 126.25.

A break above 132.26 will invalidate the bearish count above and will delay the decline for a move towards 132.75 before downside pressure takes over again.
 USD/JPY - The rally from 80.83 looks good, but we now need a break above the resistance-line near 81.50 to confirm the next move higher towards 83.30 and 84.17. Long term the target is 85.65.

Before being able to clear above resistance at 81.50 we might need a small set-back towards 81.20 to gather strength for the break above 81.50.
 GBP/USD - We now are at the 161.65 resistance. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a failure-break above here, maybe towards the 161.85 - 161.95 area, before the E-wave of the big triangle finally find its termination and downside pressure takes over.

We will need a break below 160.72 to have the first indication, that the top might be in place. But only a break below 158.16 confirms the top.
EUR/JPY - Here too the rally from the 106.29 low looks constructive for a continuation higher. We are currently fighting with the resistance-line from 111.11, but a clear break above here (close above) will confirm the next rally towards 108.80; 109.80 and 111.47 on the way to the long term target at 118.85.

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