Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD

 EUR/USD (Weekly chart) - The above count seems to fit the price-action since the July 2008 high at 160.38 nicely. If the above count is correct, then we finished a big B-wave triangle at 142.47 and has since seen a thrust out of the triangle, where wave 1 ended at 126.23 and wave 2 ended at 134.86.
From the top of wave 2 we have seen two minor five wave declines followed by two three wave rallies, which fits a series of 1 and 2's.
Zooming in on the last two minor waves one's and two's please see the chart below

EUR/USD (4 hourly) - The current rise is counted as minor blue wave 2 from 129.93 and if we are looking at an minor Ending diagonal as minor blue wave c then we can't see a rally beyond 133.15, as the will leave minor blue wave iii as the smallest and that is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. Just below at 132.93 we find the 76.4% retracement of blue wave 1 down, so we should expect a top in the 132.93 - 133.14 area calling for a powerful blue wave iii down soon.
A rally beyond 133.15 will invalidate the ending diagonal count, but only a break above 133.85 will invalidate the above count.
Therefore selling EUR ag. USD close to 132.93 with a 133.95 stop should offer a good risk/reward opportunity.
The conservative way to trade this will be to wait for a break below 131.55 with the same stop.

Important bottom in place in Natural Gas?

Natural Gas - Odds favors that an important bottom is in place with the test of 1.90. The test of 1.90 was just 6 small pips below the ideal target of 1.96 where wave [C] down from the July 2008 high at 13.96 would have equaled the length for wave [A].
With the prospects of an important bottom being in place the next resistance to look for is at 2.39 and a break above here should clear the way for a rally higher towards 4.34 longer term.
Support is now found in the 1.96 - 2.00 area, which should protect the downside for a move towards 2.39 and likely higher towards the 2,75 - 2.84 area.

Did the Spanish stock-index IBEX just trigger a S/H/S top?

Spain (IBEX) - Has a big S/H/S top just been activated in the Spanish stock index IBEX?
It could well be, but I would like to see a break below the March 2009 low at 6,702 as an additional confirmation, that a deeper decline towards 5,266 is under way.
I would not be surprised to see the March 2009 low protect the downside for a back-test of the broken neckline, which currently sits near 7,520.
If however support at 6,702 gives away the pressure on Spain will rise considerably and tell us that the economy in Spain is take an other step towards worsening. Already the unemployment in Spain is above 23%. The unemployment amongst the young is more than 50%. Spain is well under way to become the obvious trigger for the next big crises in the EU-Zone economy.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/CHF; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; USD/CAD and Gold

 EUR/USD - The correction from 129.93 became more complex (triple three) than first anticipated, but odds favors that we saw the top of red wave ii at 132.63 yesterday. A close below the minor support-line near 131.55 will indicate that the 132.63 test was the top, while a break below 131.03 will confirm the top for a new decline towards 129.93 and strong support near 126.25 longer term.

 USD/CHF - Here too it seems that the next part of the uptrend is ready to resume. A break above 91.35 will be the first indication, while we need a break above 92.51 to confirm the next part of the rally higher towards 98.70 and longer term a rally close to 114.00 should be in the cards.
A break below 90.50 will delay the upside, but we should not see a break below 89.98 as that re-open the downside for a decline towards 86.06.
Therefore buying USD ag. CHF here with a 89.90 stop should offer a very nice risk/reward opportunity.

 USD/JPY - My favorite count still favors that wave 4 ended at 80.31 and that wave up has begun. If my count is right we have seen minor wave i end at 81.77 and minor wave ii should be at or very near to it's termination. A break above 80.92 will be the first indication that minor wave ii is done, while a break above 81.14 confirms that wave iii up towards 82.96 have begun.

 GBP/USD - As expected the resistance at 161.65 has been broken slightly. As long as 160.70 protects the short term downside I do expect the overshooting to be slightly larger, but I do think we are very close to the top of the big triangles wave E.
As we don't have any "safe" stops that can be placed I would recommend waiting for a break below 160.70 before selling GBP.

 EUR/JPY - As for USD/JPY I do think, that we saw an important bottom at 104.61 (wave 2) and that wave 3 up towards 118.65 longer term has begun.
From 104.61 we most likely have seen minor wave i to 108.00 and minor wave ii is very close to or at its bottom and minor wave iii towards 109.58 ready to take of.
I will buy EUR ag. JPY near 105.95 with a 104.50 stop or upon a break above 107.46 with a stop just below the low reached before breaking above 107.46.

 USD/CAD - The 97.20 - 97.50 target is in sight, but we need the small wiggles to develop properly. My short term count is show above and shows that we are in a minor wave iv (blue) of red wave v of wave iii down. I'm looking for a decline towards 97.70 - 97.90 to end red wave v and wave iii calling for a new correction towards 98.65 - 98.70 area before the last leg down towards the target-area is seen.

Gold - Is within a week or max. two point out the direction for the next major leg. Is it up towards 1,745 in the triangle or is it down towards 1,520 - 1,535 in the big correction from the 1,920 top.
Wait for the break to help us determine which is right.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/TRY

EUR/TRY - Are we finally ready to break below the minor support-line since the 228.49 low?

It looks like it and a break below (close below) will call for the next serious decline towards the double top target near 221.25. Ideally we will reach the 221.25 target around May 7. but lets see how the decline unfolds.

The coming decline will be wave 5 down from the 258.89 top in late August 2011.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and EUR/JPY

 EUR/USD - I still view the decline from 132.26 to 131.03 as Impulsive, but that means the correction from 131.03 very soon should find a top for a decline below 131.83 and more importantly 131.47, that will confirm a new decline below 131.03 on the way down towards 129.93.
Long term I'm looking for a decline towards strong long term support near 126.25.

A break above 132.26 will invalidate the bearish count above and will delay the decline for a move towards 132.75 before downside pressure takes over again.

 USD/JPY - The rally from 80.83 looks good, but we now need a break above the resistance-line near 81.50 to confirm the next move higher towards 83.30 and 84.17. Long term the target is 85.65.

Before being able to clear above resistance at 81.50 we might need a small set-back towards 81.20 to gather strength for the break above 81.50.

 GBP/USD - We now are at the 161.65 resistance. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a failure-break above here, maybe towards the 161.85 - 161.95 area, before the E-wave of the big triangle finally find its termination and downside pressure takes over.

We will need a break below 160.72 to have the first indication, that the top might be in place. But only a break below 158.16 confirms the top.

EUR/JPY - Here too the rally from the 106.29 low looks constructive for a continuation higher. We are currently fighting with the resistance-line from 111.11, but a clear break above here (close above) will confirm the next rally towards 108.80; 109.80 and 111.47 on the way to the long term target at 118.85.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the CRB-Index; Gold; Silver; Copper; and Natural Gas

 CRB Index - Is sitting just on top of very important support at 294.00 and break below here (close below) will call for the next serious decline towards the 247 - 249 area on the way below the ending point of wave [A] at 200 longer term.

 Gold - The big question here is still whether we have seen a major long term top at 1,920 (Wave V) or it just wave wave 3 of 5 of V. The jury is still out there and we will have to wait for the confirmation, but if we are looking at wave 4 of 5 of V my best bet is, that a triangle is forming at we should see a rally higher towards the 1,700 - 1,720 area as wave D of the triangle.

A close below the red trend-line at 1,625 will damage the triangle scenario, but only a break below 1,521 will kill the triangle all together and call for a much bigger decline.

 Silver - Is still under immense pressure after its run-away top at 49.51 and I still looking for this correction to takes us towards strong support near 21.50. For now the focus should be towards support near 26.00, but longer term I do expect it to break for a decline towards 21.50.

 Copper - The big picture is still dominated by the possible big S/H/S top, but we need a break below the neck-line support near 315 to activate the formation for a decline to at least 224, but longer term we should see the long term support near 160 tested.

Natural Gas - Might finally be bottoming. Yesterday we saw the first close above the resistance-line back from November 2011. Pin-pointing the bottom has not been easy, but it never is. However we knew that the indicators was flashing triple divergence and we was in the support area between 1.83 - 1.96. The low until now has been 1.90 just 6 small from the ideal 1.96 target.
The next indication that an important bottom is in place will be a break above 2.03, which would call for a move towards 2.40 and possibly 2.60, where we will find the next strong resistance.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; AUD/USD; USD/CAD and EUR/JPY

 EUR/USD - The decline from 132.26 down to 131.03 seems impulsive (five wave decline), that means we should be looking for a three wave correction towards the 131.79 - 131.97 area from where the next impulsive decline should commerce and take out support at 131.03 for a decline towards support at 129.93 on the way to strong long term support near 126.25.

Only an unexpected break above 132.26 will delay for a move higher towards 132.85 before down.

If we saw a five wave decline yesterday the 131.79 - 131.97 area should represent a low risk selling-area with a 132.35 stop

 USD/JPY - Declined a bit more than expected, but it hasn't changed the overall picture of the decline from 84.17 down to 80.83 being a wave ii correction. A break above 81.18 will confirm that the correction from 84.17 is over for a new rally towards 83.26 on the way to 85.65 longer term.

A break below 80.83 will delay the upside pressure for a continuation down to 80.65 before the underlying new uptrend is ready to resume.

If you bought USD ag. JPY yesterday in the 81.15 - 81.20 area keep protective stops at 80.25. If you haven't bought yet you could buy here in the 80.65 - 80.87 area with the same stop or more conservatively wait for a break above 81.18 before buying USD.

 GBP/USD - We could have seen wave E of the big triangle end at 161.48 just below the ideal target at 161.65, but as long as support at 160.35 protects the downside I will be looking for the move towards 161.65 or even slightly above in a failure break before the downside pressure really takes over.

The aggressive trader will short near 161.65 with a 163.25 stop, while the more conservative trader will wait for a break below 160.35 with a stop just above the top set before the break-down.

 AUD/USD - Seems to be leading towards the downside again. Yesterday we broke below support at 103.00and all we need now to confirm that we have begun the next serious decline is a break below 102.20, which will open up the downside for a decline towards support in the 98.55 - 98.90 area.

Only an unexpected break above 103.85 will delay the downside pressure.

 USD/CAD - Here I'm still looking for one last decline below 98.38 to ideally the 97.20 - 97.55 area from where the next upside pressure should begin. Be aware that all we need is a break below 98.38 to fulfil the requirements for the decline from 105.23 (five wave decline in wave C) and setting the stages for the next rally above 100.50.

EUR/JPY - Here too the wave ii correction became a little deeper than expected, but I expect we have seen wave ii end at 106.29 and soon will see a break above 106.83 confirming a minor double bottom and the on-set of wave iii higher towards 108.80 and 109.80 on the way above 111.47 towards long term target near 118.85.

If you haven't already bought EUR ag. JPY a use a break above 106.83 with a 105.80 stop.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on Shanghai Comp.; Cameco and Apple

 Shanghai Composite - I have been waiting for minor wave ii to end near 2,420 and with the test of 2,411 today we most likely saw wave ii end, which means we should now see renewed downside pressure. The first hurdle to pass will be support at 2,369 and a break below here will ease the upside pressure and shift the pressure more to the downside, but we need a break below 2,333 to really see downside pressure added.

Cameco (CCJ) - In early April I did a follow-up on Uranium stocks (see the post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/04/followup-technical-analysis-on-uranium.html)

Now seem to be a good time to do the next little follow-up on one of the stocks Cameco. It broke out of a bull-flag formation on Friday and should now be headed for resistance at 26.45 and its double bottom target near 28, which is more than a 27% rally from Fridays close.

Both the MACD-Indicator and Volume seems to confirm the break-out, so stay tuned...

 

Apple (APPL) - After an almost perfect 61.8% retracement (615) of the decline from 644 to 572 Apple on Friday is sitting right at the 572 support and a break here will open up the downside for a decline towards the 354 - 363 area. On the way down we will see strong support near 515, but I do believe it will be broken for a deeper decline.

Vertical moves never end good, remember...





Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and EUR/JPY

 EUR/USD - Is red wave 2 all-ready done at 132.26 or do we need one more high closer to resistance near 132.36 before the next decline below 129.93 is seen for a continuation down to important long term support near 126.45.

If red wave 2 is done already we should see a break below 131.75 and more importantly 131.15 confirming the test of support at 129.93. 

 USD/JPY - Continues to behave as expected. We are now at support near 81.20, but I expect to see one last low in the 81.15 - 81.20 area before the correction from 81.77 is done and the next rally towards 83.28 is seen on the way towards 85.65 longer term.

Support in the 81.15 - 81.20 area should represent a good buying-area with a 80.25 stop.

 GBP/USD - Here too we are sitting just before strong resistance at 161.63. I would not be surprised to see this resistance broken slightly in a failure-break ending wave E of the large triangle, which has formed since January 2009.
When wave E of the triangle is finally done we should see a thrust out of the triangle to the downside and should ultimately see a decline below the ending-point of wave [A] at 134.98.

EUR/JPY - Has also acted as expected and we should see a decline towards support in the 106.50 - 106.75 area for where we could see the next rally higher begin. The next rally should take us above resistance at 111.43 towards next long term resistance near 118.85.

Answer to my quiz on Friday was Natural Gas

Natural Gas Inverted

The chart I showed in my little quiz on Friday was of cause and Inverted chart of Natural Gas .

Asked whether you would buy or sell. I think the trend in Natural Gas has matured to a degree where it could turn around any time now. We have entered a strong support area and at the same time the MACD-Indicator is showing a massive positive divergence. The problem with divergences is that they can run for many months if the trend is strong, which is the case here.

A break above the resistance-line from 3.69 will be the first indication that the long term downtrend is over.

Elliott wave analyisi on EUR/USD; USD/JPY and GBP/USD

 EUR/USD - The price-action the last couple of days has been very messy, but the rally above resistance at 131.87 has forced to make some adjustments to the short term count. I now regard the decline from 133.85 to 129.93 as red wave i and red wave ii is ongoing and should ideally find resistance in the 132.35 - 132.50 area and setting the stages for red wave iii down below 129.93 for a continuation towards important long term support near 126.25.

 USD/JPY - Has been spot on. With the 81.77 high set today minor wave i up from 80.31 is most likely over. That means that we missed my target by just 10 small pips, but if you where long USD and haven't taken profit yet you could move stop to 81.45 or more conservatively hold it just below 80.30 as red wave ii unfolds.
Red wave ii shall ideally find support near the 81.10 - 81.20 area, from which I would recommend a new long USD-position with a 80.25 stop.

GBP/USD - As I said yesterday the latest price-action has tilted the longer term picture towards the big [B]-wave triangle still developing. Ideally we will see resistance at 161.65 on slightly above tested before the downside pressure can resume.
In the bigger picture we are now in the later part of wave E and when wave E is down we should be ready to see the thrust out of the triangle for a long term decline below 135.00.
For now lets concentrated on the last part of wave E as we approach the ideal target near 161.65.

QUIZ! What is it... and what would you do?

If you are up for it I have a quiz for you today.

Can anyone tell me what the chart above represents?

The rules are, that I have striped it for the name, units, it might be inverted etc.

Let's say this was the first time you saw the chart, what would you do? Would you buy? Would you sell? Would yo do nothing?

I will give show you the real chart on Sunday.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD and USD/JPY - Follow-up

 EUR/USD - Failure to take out the 131.72 higher and the fact that it seems we are break down below support at 130.78 re-enforces my confidence in the leading diagonal count. A break below 130.55 will call for a new decline towards support in the 129.75 - 130.00 area, but a break below this support will call for a continuation down towards 128.50 as first minor target but we should see a test of important long term support near 126.25 follow.

USD/JPY - Please see my post from April 17. here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/04/update-on-usdjpy-and-eurjpy.html

Has almost reached it first target near 81.87. I still think that this resistance will hold the first test for a reaction back towards at least 81.17 and maybe even 80.90, before the next attack on the 81.87 resistance is seen.

If you went long USD on April 17 you will want to move protective stops up to 81.30 and consider taking profit near 81.87 for a nice profit of more than 100 pips.

If you are an very aggressive trader you will try selling USD near 81.87 with a 82.20 stop and take profit and possible revers to a long USD position in the 80.90 - 81.17 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and follow-up

EUR/JPY - First see my post from April 17 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/04/update-on-usdjpy-and-eurjpy.html

As we have now broken above resistance at 107.10 we have confirmation that wave 2 ended at 104.61 on April 16.

The next minor upside target is 108.00 and depending on how aggressive you are you should move stops up to your entry-point (break-even) for the conservative trader, while the aggressive trader will have stops just beneath the steep rising support-line which currently comes in at 106.70.

In both cases consider taking profit near the 108.00 target.

Elliott wave on Natural Gas

Natural Gas - Is still trying to hammer out a bottom. If the above count is correct the maximum downside-target for wave v is 1.87. If wee exceed 1.87 wave iii will the smallest which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. However if 1.87 is taken out support stretching back to January 2002 will be found just below at 1.85 and at 1.76 we finds the next support stretching back to October 2001.
To get the first signal that a bottom might be in place we need a break above 2.03 and more importantly a break above 2.20, which will call for a rally towards at least 2.58, but longer term we should see a much bigger rally.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; Copper; DJI; SSEC and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - The price-action here is in no way convincing. The most bullish short term count I can come up with is, that the decline from 131.72 to 130.56 was a leading diagonal, but even that doesn't fit particularly well. Therefore I'm inclined to say that the correction from 129.93 isn't over and that we most likely will see a move beyond 131.45 and slightly beyond 131.72 towards 131.85 before the next downside pressure emerges.
Only a direct break below 131.00 will ease the upside pressure, but we need a break below 130.82 and more importantly 130.56 to confirm the leading diagonal and thereby bullish count.

 USD/JPY - Has performed well and is now close to strong short term resistance near 81.85, which must be expected to protect the upside at the first try.
Short term a break above 81.56 will confirm the move higher towards 81.85, from where I expect a correction towards the 80.90 - 81.05 area.
Use the move towards 81.85 to take profit on longs and re-buy near 80.90 with a 80.25 stop.

 GBP/USD - The price-action has not really been consistent with my count suggesting that the wave [B] triangle ended with the test of 166.18 on August 21 - 2011. The most recent price-action has shifted odds in favor of the triangle-building still being ongoing in wave E. The ideal target for wave E will be near 161.65 and a break above 160.62 will confirm a move towards 161.65 and possibly a slight overshoot before wave E is done and the triangle is finally done.
The short term aggressive trader will use a break above 160.62 buying GBP for the move higher towards 161.65 and take profit near there. Stops should be placed at 160.05. The Conservative trader will wait for the move higher towards 161.65 before considering selling GBP

 Copper - The break below support at 370 should be of concern to the risk-takers. I do think Dr. Copper has sent us an important messages, that the Global economy is slowing and that it's time to avoid to much risk.
The technical picture could be calling for a back-test of the broken support, which will now act as resistance before a break below 358.80 re-news the downside pressure for a decline towards 325 and long term important support near 310.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - I still think that a possible S/H/S top-formation is building, but the right shoulder needs more time to build. The two shoulders does not need to be identical, but it will make the formation more reliable the more identical they are.
The all-important short term support is at 12,735 and a break below here will confirm a decline towards 12,300.

 Shanghai Composite - I'm looking for a break below support at 2,333 to confirm the next serious downside pressure for a move close to 2,000, where strong support will be found.
As long as support at 2,333 is protecting the downside we must accept a move towards the 2,410 - 2,420 area before downside pressure takes over.

Crude Oil - Hasn't done much lately. We are locked in what looks like a bull-flag, but for that to be true support near 100 need to protect the downside for a break above 105.50 and more importantly 108.50 which will confirm a new rally higher towards 110.55 and 114.80.
A break below 100 will add considerably pressure to the downside for a move down to at least 95.45.