Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P500; Gold and Crude Oil

The major Central Banks comes to the rescue and flips everything upside down for now. However it could easily turn out to be a dangerous game they are playing. We have seen this game played before and it only works for so long, but of cause this time it might be different even though I seriously doubt it...

Original post below:
EUR/USD - We obviously needed a care-run to 134.42 to force out all the bears, that was looking for a possible minor inverted S/H/S bottom. The following price-action clearly tells us, that the trend is firmly down for a break below 132.10 soon, with next support at 131.40.

USD/JPY - Here too the decline got a little deeper than expected, but the top of red wave i at 77.58 was not penetrated, which leave us with two possible counts. One is, that we saw the top of red wave iii at 78.23 and red wave iv at 77.59 and we should now be looking at red wave v towards 78.95. The more bullish count is that the rally from 76.99 to 78.23 only was wave i of red wave iii calling for a much more powerful rally soon, which should break clearly trough 78.95.

S&P 500 - tried to break above resistance at 1,198 without success. We might see one last failure towards 1,205, but I will not be betting on it and I'm now looking for a break below 1,184.50 to confirm, that the next downside pressure has begun in red wave III down towards important support at 1,068.

Gold - Here too we needed a slightly new high as the bulls got excited, but there is nothing to be excited about just yet. I'm still looking for a more serious test of important support near 1,570. If this support holds bulls should get excited.

Crude Oil - Here too we saw a higher retracement, than expected, but it hasn't change the bigger picture calling for a break below 97 soon confirming a new test of support at 95 and a break here clearly confirms that we saw an important short term top (possibly also long term top) at 103.34. A break below 95 will call for a quick decline towards the 86 area.

Shanghai Composite - Testing important support

First take a look at my post from September 28 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/09/chinese-economy-in-trouble.html

The charts above show the monthly and weekly price-action of the Shanghai Composite.

On the upper chart we have now closed below the 20 year rising trend-line support four month in a row, all but confirming the change in the long term trend.

Looking at the weekly chart below we can see important support at 2,307 being challenged. If... No when this support breaks the next target will be the bottom of wave [A] at 1,668, but the longer term target for wave [C] is at 1,080.

USD/CNY is still in a clear downtrend, but we have multiple warnings, that we could soon see the downtrend-line at 645.80 tested. If resistance at 645.80 is broken we should be headed higher towards 689 (there is no Elliott wave count on this chart, but the 689 mark is the top of wave 4 of the decline from 869 in 1994), 689.00 also marks the 23.6% retracement target for the entire decline from 869.00 to 637.84.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; S&P 500; Gold; Copper and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - Made it to resistance at 134.00, The rejection here and the following decline to me confirms the bearish picture. I'm now looking for a break below 132.70 to confirm the next serious test of the support at 132.10.
Longer term I'm still looking for a much deeper decline through 131.40 for a move towards 128.63.

USD/JPY - The rally towards the red down-trendline resistance near 78.95 still looks very healthy. Longer term I look for a break above this trendline, which would confirm, that an important bottom is in place with the test of 75.55 and a rally back to 115.00 has begun.

GBP/USD - I have added GBP/USD (Cable) today as we are closing in on very important support near 153.45 and a break below here will trigger a thrust out of the big triangle, which has been building since January 2009.

The target for this thrust down will be near the 119 - 120 area.

S&P 500 - We have now tested resistance near 1,198.50. The big question is whether this was wave c of an expanded flat or this only was wave a and we have one more rally to go, when wave b comes to an end. I prefer the expanded flat count, which calls for renewed pressure to the downside from here. However a break above 1,198.50 will add more credence to the simple zig-zag count an call for a move higher towards the 1,215 area.

Gold - Seems to have ended its minor wave iv and is ready to challenge support near the 1,635 - 1,640 area. If this support breaks we can expect a much bigger decline.

Short term a break below 1,699 should be the first minor trigger for a move lower towards support.

Copper - I have added Copper too today. as the long term picture soon could turn very ugly. As can be seen on the chart above. we have been in a long term uptrend since 2001, which ended with the failure break above the upper channel resistance-line at 410 in late 2010.

My preferred count is that we have seen a major [A] - [B] - [C] correction, where wave [A] and [C] was equal in length and wave [B] an expanded flat. We can also see a possible S/H/S top building and a break below the neckline at 318 will trigger a big decline towards the 171 area.

If this scenario plays out Dr. Copper also spells big trouble for the economy ahead.

Crude Oil - The picture above for Copper also go hand in hand with my longer term view for Crude Oil, which is also clearly down.

Short term I think we saw wave ii end yesterday at 100.68, that also ended the right hand shoulder of a minor S/H/S top calling for a decline to the 86 area, but longer term we should see a break below important support near 77.85, which will trigger an even bigger S/H/S top. (see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/11/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_28.html).

However for now look for the red Pitchfork to define the decline.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - Is still fighting with important support in the 132 - 133 area, but once this area is broken, the downside is wide open.
Short term is looking for resistance in the 133.40 - 133.60 area, which I expect will protect the upside for the next pressure to the downside and possible a break below support at 132.10.

USD/JPY - The big ending diagonal (falling wedge), which has defined wave 5 is still intact, but for how long? I'm still looking for a more serious challenge of the resistance line at 79 and a break above here (will probably not be easy...) will confirm, that a long term bottom is in place and a rally towards 115 has begun.
Short term I will look for support in the 77.30 - 77.40 area for a break above 77.80, which sets the stage for the next push towards resistance at 79.

S&P 500 - I still think we ideally should some more consolidation of the fall from 1,264, but as I have previous stated we are in wave iii down and this is a very powerful wave and correction can be very shallow almost to the none-existent. Therefore be careful.

Short term I still looking for a move towards 1,198.50 area from where the next powerful decline towards the neckline support at 1,082 should be seen.

Gold - Tried to bounce once again, but without success. Looks a little like a boxer getting knock-down every time he tries to stand up.

We have just seen a other failure break above the channel resistance-line and the should push us back down to support at 1,640, if this support breaks too, then we should see a decline towards the channel mid-line near 1,300.

Short term we could see gold a little higher towards 1,715 - 1,716 from where the next decline should set in. Only a break above 1,735.30 will relieve the downside pressure.

Crude Oil - The pressure to the downside is getting stronger. Two weeks ago we saw a long wicked bearish candle, which still dominates the picture. We could see a move closer towards 100, but from there pressure should again build towards the downside for a break below 98.35 and more importantly 95. A break below 95 will open up the downside for a decline towards the long term neckline support at 77.85.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We have now broken below the green Pitchfork support-line, which is the first warning, that a much deeper decline could be under way. We of cause need to see the break sustained, but if it is we should see a move towards 130.85.
Short term we will probably see a minor reaction back towards the break-point at 133.20 and we might even go as high as 134.10 again, before the next push to the downside.

USD/JPY - Are we in an a-b-c correction from 75.55 or are we in a new more powerful uptrend?
I suspect that we have seen a major bottom at 75.55 and should soon take out resistance at 79.51 for a continuation higher towards the 84.85 - 85.45 area.
Short term a break above 78.45 should do the trick.

S&P 500 - Thanksgiving did the S&P 500 good I can see... If my short term count is correct, we should see a reaction higher towards the 1,193 - 1,198.50 area, before the next decline towards neckline support at 1,083.
That said take care, we are in wave iii, which normally is the most powerful and correction can be very shallow.

Gold - It seems as we are developing a small wave iv triangle, which should resolve into a full-scale test of support at 1,635. If the triangle count is correct, support at 1,635 should hold for a correction higher to the 1,680 area before any new attempt to the downside could be seen.

Crude Oil - The neckline support is holding firm and could spark one more go at resistance near 98.65 in a flat correction, When this rally is done we should see a new attempt to break the neckline support for a much deeper decline.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We have now more or less seen the test of the green Pitchfork support-line and it has until now done its job, but I doubt this support will be able to fight off the pressure and when it breaks the larger red Pitchfork takes over and pressure of the EUR will increase.
For now expects short-term resistance in the 134.19 - 134.29 area to hold for the next decline below 133.18.
A surprise break above 134.29 will open for a test of strong short-term resistance at 135, which will have to protect the upside or will we see a return to the 138.66 - 138.92 area.

S&P 500 - I think it's about time to a minor correction towards the 1,188 - 1,198 area, before the next serious assault to the downside. Remember we are in wave iii down and corrections tend to be shallow.
Longer term I looking for a more serious test of the S/H/S neckline near 1,085 and a break below here will turn the picture very ugly.

Gold - Not much to add here. We should soon see a more serious test of important support near 1,589 and a break below here will leave the downside open for attack. It will also remove the possible count, that we only saw the end of wave iii of 5 at 1,920 and enforce the count, that we saw an important top at 1,920 and a much deeper decline is in the works.

Crude Oil - The neckline support at 95.35 is still holding up, but for how long? I don't think it will last too long and when it break the S/H/S target will be near the 87 area.

Longer term however I'm looking for a much deeper decline below 75.

USD/JPY - Major bottom in place?

The price-action of the last couple of week, could be consistent with a large long term bottom being in place. After the intervention of BOJ, which took USD/JPY from 75.55 to 79.51 we have seen a drift lower, but not in any convincing way. That could be a warning of a major bottom being in place at 75.55. If I was BOJ, I would get out the dry gunpowder and start shooting, because a rally above 79.51 could give the USD a massive lift against the JPY and ease the pressure on the Japanese exporters.
If we get a break above 79.51 and more importantly 80.24 the way higher has been paved for a rally towards 115 area over the coming months.
However the battle is not won yet, only a confirmed break above 79.51 will do the trick.

Sensex - Breaking important support

The Indian Sensex-Index today broke below important support at 15,752. As this is a weekly chart the break still isn't confirmed, but it is clearly a warning that we could see much deeper declines in the coming months. A close below support at 15,752 will open for a continuation down towards 14,393; 12,819 and 10,346, which is the Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target.

In the bigger picture I regards the entire price-action since the 2008 top at 21,206.77 as a big flat correction, which calls for the [C]-leg down to or just below the end of wave [A] at 7,697.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We finally got the break below minor support at 134.20 and should now be headed towards the green Pitchfork support line near 132.85. If this support breaks too we should see a much deeper decline in EUR/USD.
I do expect support at 132.85 to be broken, but it will probably be a serious fight.

S&P 500 - We are probably about to end minor red wave 1 of black iii down, which should cause a minor consolidation, but remember we are in wave iii down and reactions tends to be shallow in wave iii.
Longer term we should see a serious test of the neck-line support at 1,085.

Gold - 1,635 here we come. I expect this support to be broken for a continuation down towards important support at 1,600. If support at 1,600 breaks as well, we could be looking at a much deeper decline over the coming months.
But for now lets see what happens at 1,635 and likely at 1,600.

Crude Oil - A minor Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top seems to be building. A break below the neck-line support at 95.30 we should see a quick move down to the 86.90 87 area.

Longer term I'm looking for a much deeper decline below 75 towards the 36 - 37 area.

USD/CAD - Building a bottom?

The long term picture for USD/CAD is clearly down, but we could be looking at an inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottom. A break above the neckline at 106.40 will confirm the bottom for a rally towards the long term downtrend line, which currently is at 118.53.
Only a break below support at 100.52 and more importantly 98.88 will invalidate the bottom-formation.

NZD/USD - Breaking down

NZD/USD has since late 2000 been in a major Zig-zag correction. The entire correction has been defined by the green Pitchfork and the throw-over in July/August marks a major top and a return to the Pitchforks mid-line, which currently is located at 67.00 is the next downside target. The latest confirmation, that we are headed towards the Pitchforks mid-line is the break below the medium term support line at 75.72.

AUD/USD - Headed for important support

It has been a while (http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/10/audusd-is-big-decline-in-cards.html) since I have looked at the AUD/USD pair. My view is the same as then. Since early 2001 we have seen a major double Zig-Zag correction to 110.80 in 2011. Looking at the internal relationship between the two Zig-Zag's they are exactly equal in length.
We might of cause be looking at a triple Zig-Zag, but if this is the case we still a much deeper "X" wave to develop first.
The first natural target is support at 93.86 and a break here will confirm a decline towards the bottom of wave B2 at 80.73. But I think a more likely target will be the rising red support line, which currently is at 64.89.

Apple - Has more than one bit been taken?

With yesterdays close below the blue trend-line, we might have gotten the first serious warning, that an important top is in place. However we need a break below support at 354 to confirm the top and a continuation towards next support at 310.
If the above count is correct we should see a much deeper decline over the coming months, but for now lets keep an eye on the 354 support.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - The failure to break below minor support at 134.20 is slightly dissapointing, but it hasn't change anything in the overall picture. We should soon face resistance again and a break below 134.20 should only be a question of time for the next decline towards the 133 area.

S&P 500 - It's not a pretty picture for the S&P 500 and a test of the all important neck-line support at 1,086 should be the next big hurdle. On the way down minro support should be seen at 1,183 and at 1,157.

Gold - As can be seen we are clearly in a long term uptrend, but the is a clear risk, that we have seen an important top at the 1,920. We saw a short term break above the channel-resistance line, which alway is a warning, that the prior trend is coming to an end. That said we might only have seen wave iii of 5 at 1,920 and as long as support at 1,600 and more importantly 1,534 hold firm, this possibility is obviouse. However a break below 1,600 will weaken the uptrend since 1999 and a break below 1,534 will call for a test of the channel-support line.

Crude oil - Odds still favor that a top is in place at 103.30, but we need resistance at 97.50 and more likely 100.14 to protect the upside for a break below 94.60, which will open up the downside for a move towards the 75 - 76 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - After a falsh break above 135.30 Friday we should be underway towards important support near 133. If support at 133 is broken too the green Pitchfork is dead and focus turns towards the red mid-line near 131 as first target, but this decline could be much deeper.
Resistance at 134.82 should now protect the upside short term (Support turns to resistance)

S&P 500 - After the break below 1,227 the possible bullish triangle many was looking at, was invalidated and focus is now for further declines towards 1,183 and 1,158, but longer term, I do expect, we should see support at 1,084 (neckline) break for a continuation towards 1,011 and 768 as the S/H/S target.

Gold - Is headed for support at 1,632 and most likely a full test of strong support near 1,591, this support should hold to keep the bullish count, calling for one more rally towards 2,036. If however support at 1,591 is broken the count switches to the more bearish count, which has the wave 5 top at 1,920.

Crude oil - Has now clearly broken the minor support line from 84.10 and we should now see a new decline towards this area again, but longer term I'm looking for a break below 75 towards the bottom of wave [A] near 34.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil plus two benefits...

EUR/USD - Is finding support in the low 134 area, but it should only be a question of time before we see a break below here for a decline to more important support near the lower green Pitchfork support line. If we break clearly below this support, we will be looking at a more serious decline in the coming months.
But for now we should be looking for resistance near 135.30 holding for a break below 134.45 for a move towards the low 133 area.

S&P 500 - With support at 1,227.44 broken we can turn our attention to the downside for a decline towards the 1,149 - 1,158 area. On the way dow support will be found at 1,191.
Longer term we should see a more firm test of the possible neckline near 1,085

Gold - With support at 1,735 clearly broken now we can again turn our focus towards support at 1,630 and possible deeper towards the low 1,500 area longer term.

Crude Oil - Everything points towards a top in place yesterday with the test of 103.37. I must admit, that the rally from 75 has become much higher than I expected, but the triple resistance I mentioned yesterday seems to have done its job and turned prices down. Still we need a clear break below 97.92 to confirm the top, but I do expect that to be seen soon. Probably after a minor back-test towards the 101.50 - 102 area.

Shanghai Composite - After a couple of months correction we should be ready to challenge important support at 2,308 - 2,317 again. A clear break below this support will spell massive trouble for the Chinese economy in 2012.

Longer term my downside target is near 1,173.

Silver - The clear break below support at 32.50 should turn our focus towards support in the

24 - 26 area again. This area should hold or losses will be much deeper.