USD/JPY - Major bottom in place?

The price-action of the last couple of week, could be consistent with a large long term bottom being in place. After the intervention of BOJ, which took USD/JPY from 75.55 to 79.51 we have seen a drift lower, but not in any convincing way. That could be a warning of a major bottom being in place at 75.55. If I was BOJ, I would get out the dry gunpowder and start shooting, because a rally above 79.51 could give the USD a massive lift against the JPY and ease the pressure on the Japanese exporters.
If we get a break above 79.51 and more importantly 80.24 the way higher has been paved for a rally towards 115 area over the coming months.
However the battle is not won yet, only a confirmed break above 79.51 will do the trick.

USD/JPY - At a long term bottom?

The above count is my favorit long term count, which shows, that USD/JPY has made five waves down. We still have some way to go, before we start challenging the long term down-trend (fat red line).

Closeing in on the wave 4 and 5, we can clearly see, that momentum has been weakning all along wave 5 down and even the steeper medium down-trend (blue thin line) is some distance away at the 79 area.

Zooming in even further we can see that we are now testing the resistance-line since mid-April 2011 and a break above this line could be the first warning, that the bottom is in place. I would like to see the daily MACD break above the zero-line too, but if we does a rally towards the 79 area could easily be at hand.

Does that mean, that risk-on is the name of the game again? I don't think so. The Japanese Government and Bank of Japan (BoJ) has made it clear, that they don't want the strong Yen. This rally could just be a short lived relief-rally, but if I was sitting in BoJ this would be the time I sell JPY and buy USD, EUR and whatever they want to buy. This could be the time of maximum effect with the use of the least possible ammunition...