The destination this time is the Philippines (my first time there). Therefore I will update my longer term view below.
EUR/USD - I'm very suprised to see resistance at 140.74 broken without any difficulty at all. That does raise focus to the last lines, which is the red upper pitchfork line and the blue former support-line (now turned into resístance), which is at 143.70 today (falling by 5 pips a day). As long as these lines of defense protects the upside, I will be looking for a break below 139.48 and more importantly 137.96, which will confirm that a top is in place.
If however they are broken too, the next target will be 147.55 and maybe even 149.36.
S&P 500 - Here too we just keep marching on higher, but strong resistance will be found in the 1,311.00 - 1,331 area. If we see a top in this area (as I expect) we could be building a big Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top calling for a much deeper decline in 2012 but remember, that this top-fomations only will be activated, if the neck-line currently at 1,076 is broken.
An unexpected break above 1,331.00 will call for a continuation higher towards 1,356.00 and maybe even 1,371.00
Gold - The long term uptrend since 1999 is still very much intact as long as support at 1,530 holds firm and call for one more rally higher towards 2,036.
Crude Oil - The bigger picture is still best described as a A-B-C correction from the all-time high at 147.27. In my view we are currently in the early parts of wave [C] down, which should be a five wave decline from 114.83. We have tested the 50% retracement target of wave 1 of [C] at 94.85, which could be enough as wave 2, but that will only be confirmed if support at 88.82 is broken. 
Doctor Copper, Euro, and Great British Pound (aka Cable) are looking decidedly bearish, but maybe one more up day to crush bears who held short over weekend, break their spirit, take their money.
ReplyDeletehttp://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/11/sunday-bearish-slant.html