EUR/USD - My expectations from yesterday, regarding a small overshoot of the red Pitchfork resistance-line was exactly what we saw and we are now headed for support in the 136.25 - 136.50 area. I still expect this area to be broken for a continuation towards 133.50.Short term resistance is now at 137.28 and important short term resistance at 137.82, which should not be broken at any point to keep the pressure to the downside.
S&P 500 - My warning of a overdone rally was well placed yesterday. As long as support at 1,192.62 stays intact a new rally higher can't be excluded, but that outcome is not my favored scenario. I do look for a break below 1,162.92, which will call for a continuation towards important support in the 1,150.50 - 1,153.85 area.The big question is wether we only have seen wave a of 2 or wave 2 ended at 1,232.84? I'm slightly in favor of the later, that wave 2 ended at 1,232.84, but time will show.
Gold - Broke below support at 1,629.06 to confirm a new decline towards important support at 1,530. I have changed my short term count so minor wave iii ended at 1,534.49 and wave iv ended at 1,649.30 and we should now be in wave v of C down. Longer term that means I'm still looking for one more new high before the entire rally from 1999 ends. That said one could eaisly make a good case, that we saw the wave 5 peak at 1,911.46 and pressure is towards the downside for a decline towards 1,145. If this scenario is to gain the upper hand, will need to see a clear break below 1,530.
Crude Oil - There was no time for the minor decline towards 86.82 - 87.22 area before the last move higher twoards 90.05. As I said yesterday we could easily see a top just below of slightly above 90.05, which clearly have been the case. We saw a top at 89.50 (I know some have a top at 89.66). The following decline has clearly been in five waves, which points towards a firm top at 89.50. Short term expect a minor rise towards the 87.36 - 87.86 area, before the next decline towards next important short term support at 83.16.
Crude Oil - There was no time for the minor decline towards 86.82 - 87.22 area before the last move higher twoards 90.05. As I said yesterday we could easily see a top just below of slightly above 90.05, which clearly have been the case. We saw a top at 89.50 (I know some have a top at 89.66). The following decline has clearly been in five waves, which points towards a firm top at 89.50. Short term expect a minor rise towards the 87.36 - 87.86 area, before the next decline towards next important short term support at 83.16. The minor rally towards the 87.36 - 87.86 should provide a good selling oppotunity, with a stop just one tick above the top pick 89.67 here.
No comments:
Post a Comment