EUR/CHF - Long term bottom in place?

Do we have a long term bottom in place? It's clearly a possibility, but if it's the case, this is a very early call and one should be very carefull and protective at this very early point in time.
The big picture show that we are in a A-B-C correction, where wave C was equal to wave A at 121.79 (the lowest point have been 120.93). We can see a clear five wave decline in wave [C], therefore we could have seen a long term bottom.

Zooming in on the daily chart. We see a clear divergence on both indicatores, which is a warning that a bottom could in place or is close at hand, but to confirm the bottom we need a break above 124.70 and more importantly a break above 126.46.

My long term view of an important bottom in place at 76.99 is working well. Wave 1 ended at 85.54 and wave 2 most likely ended at 79.55. From 79.55 we saw a Leading Diagonal as minor wave i and minor wave ii just ended at 80.69 and we should now see the powerfull wave iii kick of. A break above 82.23 would confirm that wave iii is in action for a rally towards at least 83.37, but more likely 85.04.

EUR/USD - Breaking important resistance

The correction yesterday was very small indicating either underlying strength or that red wave i isn't over yet. The impulsive character is improving, but we still need a hurdle or two to overcome to be absolutly sure that wave iv completede at 139.68. The next important hurdle will be a break above resistance at 144.23.

The rally from 139.68 best counts as an Leading diagonal as red wave i, but the very small correction yesterday does cause for suspicion, that we are already in red wave iii.

EUR/USD - Possible wave i is finished

If we are in the last impulsive wave up since the rally from 128.63, then red wave i was and leading diagonal. The overlapping structur indicates, that the only possible "impulse" structure that has this character is the Leading Diagonal.
The slight break above the diagonal resistance-line and failure to hold it, confirms that the the minor red wave (v) is finished and we should now be in red wave ii down towards 140.67 - 141.08 area, from where the next rally should begin. Adding confidence is, that we didn't see any divergence on the MACD-indicator at the 143.34 top.

That said we should be aware, that the rally from 139.81, because of the overlapping structure clearly could be an correction. If it's a correction, then we should see a break below 139.81 and more importantly 139.61, that would invaldate any bullish counts and call for a much deeper decline towards the 131.16 area.

Crude Oil - Breaking minor support

Lately I have seen a lot of scribling about Goldman Sachs having said that Crude should rise to a new top. Is it possible? Yes as long as impotant support at 95,00 hasn't been broken to the downside we can't exclude one more rally higher towards the 120-area.
Is it what I expect? No! The Stochastics i pointing down hard The decline from 114.83 on May 8 was clearly the biggest decline since the bottom in late December 2008.

The short term Elliott wave count (see below) doesn't support the rally higher to the contrary it points towards a new firm test of support at the 95-area and if this area is broken forget a new rise towards the 120-area and look for 83.73.

EUR/USD - Headed for resistance at 143.43

We are still headed for resistance at 143.43 and a break here will revive my bullish count and call for a new high above 149.36. As long as support at 138.61 isn't broken to the downside, my bullish count is well and alive, but a break below 138.61 would invalidate the bullish count and turn EUR/USD much lower.

EUR/CHF - At important support

EUR/CHF has been in uncharted territory for quite some time now, but as the above monthly chart of EUR/CHF shows we are now testing important support at the Mid-line of the Pitchfork near 122.00. At the same time the Stochastics indicator is in deep oversold area, with a slight positiv divergence and finaly curling slightly upwards, indicating a possible bottoming-process. Looking at the MACD-Indicator that to shows a very clear positiv divergence also indicating a possible bottom being close at hand.

From an Elliott wave perspective the entire decline from June 1992 high at 192.81 is an big A-B-C decline, where wave C will be equal to wave A in length at 121.79, this point has been slightly broken.

However if the Pitchforks Mid-line and 121.79 support is clearly broken, the outlook does not border well for the EUR and the next target will be 109.24.

S&P 500 - Could be in a topping process

You might be asking if my indicator works on other indices too? Judge yourself, here it's used on the S&P 500. It showed a clear divergence at the top in 2007 again at the bottom in 2009 and we are currently seen divergence too. This is no top or bottom picking tool, but it tells us is the odds for a top or bottom is in our favour.
Looking at S&P 500 we could be in a topping process, but the picture is not as clear as it was in regards to the Danish OMXC 20 index. The Maroon line is still well over the price-curve. When the top or bottoming process is close to its end the indicator tends to cross the price-curve in the opposite direction and it's not even close to do so yet. That might tell us, that there is more upside to come or the topping process is in its early stages. A break below the trend-line since March 2009 we tell us, that the rally has become much weaker and the the topping process has begun for real. A break below 1,294.70 should be a clear warning, that the S&P 500 has topped.

Danish OMXC20 - In topping process

The Danish stock index OMXC 20 is clearly in a topping process. I would like to show two charts , both indicating that a top is building. The first chart above is showing my custom made trend-following momentum indicator. Sorry if it seems crowded, but the one thing you should pay attention to is the fat maroon line. As can be seen at the bottoming face in late 2008 and early 2009 while the market made a new bottom the indicator did not (marked with the light green line). Currently the same kind of divergence is taking place at the top, warning that a top is forming. However the top will not be confirmed before the horizontal blue line at 442.68 is broken to the downside.
One should also notice, that both moving averages is clearly broken and beginning to turn to the downside, which is also a warning signal.

Finally we are seeing a break below the mid-line of the Andrew Pitchfork for the first time since July 2009. Telling us that the trend is getting weaker and a test of the lower support-line can be expected. I would like to see a couple of full bars below the mid-line as a confirmation, that the trend is turning from up to down.

EUR/USD - The bullish picture is still alive

At the all important 138.61 level is still intact, my bullish count is still alive. The break above the minor declining resistance-line from 149.39 does indicate, that resistance at 143.43 will be challenged soon, but it will have to give away to open up for a new high above the 149.39 top to finish the rally from 128.71 (see the daily chart at the top).

Equity Markets - Walking the "thin" line

The Equity Markets is walking the "thin" line. Some have already broken it, but is just waiting for the others to leap.

No counts here. Just the line and the charts...

Crude Oil - Time for a new impulsive downmove?

We might be stading just before the next impulsive downmove here. A break below 96.64 and more importantly 94.84 will confirm the next decline towards the 83.85 area.
My micro count maybe a little primature and wave ii is still ongoing in a c-wave rally higer towards 100.46, but it should not alter the bigger picture calling for further downside pressure to come.

EUR/USD - The bullish scenario again under threat

Sorry I didn't update yesterday, but I had Computer problems, but they should be fixed now.

The decline below 140.46 has once again put the possible bullish count under threat. As long as possible wave iv does break into the territory of wave i at 138.61, the bullish count could still be valid. As can be seen on the hourly chart below the last decline is followed by a very clear divergence on the MACD-Indicator, which could be a warning that a bottom is close at hand. To really get things going for the bullish scenario a break above the minor top at 143.45 is needed.

A break below 138.61 will kill the bullish count and favor that the entire rally from 118.75 was a double zig-zag and call for a much deeper decline. Before that decline we should see a rally higher towards 143.45 first thus.

S&P 500 - One more rally needed?

It has been some time since I have looked at the S&P 500, so maybe it's on time.
I still regard the rally from March 2009 as an [B] wave. The entire rally has a wedge like shape, which is ultimately bearish. The big question though is, when wave [B] is over. We could have seen the top with the test of 1,370.58, but if that is the case we need a break below 1,318.57 and more importantly 1,294.98. However as long as 1,318.57 isn't broken to the downside we might need one more rally higher towards 1,381 and maximum 1,394.82.

The last part of the rally since1,248.83 is clearly lacking momentum, which is a warning sign.

Crude Oil - A decline right after the EW-book

Yesterday I wrote that we should see a impulsive move down towards the 93 - 95 area. The decline we have seen since has been right after the EW-book and we should soon see a test of the 95 support. Even though I expect a minor correction from 95 don't be surprised to see only a very small correction as we are in wave (iii) of 3 down. If 95 and more importantly support at 93 breaks we should see a decline towards the 83.51 area.

EUR/USD - Correction or a new impulsive decline?

The price-action since my post from yesterday, didn't support the possible red wave (iii). The only possible valid impulsive action is to count the rally from 140.46 to 143.45 is that we have seen an Leading Diagonal. If this is the case, we should support near 141.24 area.
This scenario is only valid if 140.46 isn't broken at any time. A break below 140.46 will switch the count towards a bearish wave iii decline. If however 141.24 and more importantly 140.46 isn't broken and we instead sees a break above 142.60 we should see a new rally above 143.45 towards next resistance at 144.23.

Crude Oil - Ready for the next move

Yesterday I said, that wave (c) of (ii) should end at 101. It ended at 100.95 and we should now be ready for the next move lower towards the 93-95 area and a challenge of strong support.
A break below 93 will open the downside for a move towards 83.63.

EUR/USD - Ready for the next rally?

I'm still looking for a break above 143.39 and more importantly 144.23 to confirm that we saw the end of wave (iv) at 140.46. Short term we should see the 142.35-142.40 area protect the downside, but only a break below 141.93 and more importantly 141.23 will alter this count.

Red wave (i) from 140.46 was an Leading Expanded Diagonal (see the 5 minut chart below to see the details)

USD/JPY - In the very early stages of wave 3

My long term view still is, that we saw an important long term bottom with the test of 76.99 on March 16. Since then we have seen a micro wave 1 rally, which ended at 85.54 and wave 2 ended at 79.56. We should now be in the very early stages of wave 3 up. The rise since 79.56 if impulsiv can only be counted as an Expanding Leading diagonal, because of the overlapping structure. We should be close to end wave (iii) and should see a new decline in wave (iv) down towards the 81 area.
I would expect this ongoing wave i to end near 82.77.

Crude Oil - Headed for the 101 area

We are corrently in the middle of wave (c) of wave (ii) of wave 3. Wave (ii) is an flat correction, which means that we should see wave (c) head for the 101 area. That would be just above the end of wave (a), which ended at 100.65 and at the same time it's the 61.8% retracement of wave (i) down from 104.59 to 95.30.

When this wave (ii) is over we should see a much deeper decline through 95 and more importantly 93, which will open for a decline towards 84.35 and probably 71.85.

EUR/USD - The bullish count is still under threat

My possible bullish count is still under threat, as long as resistance at 143.39 and more importantly 144.23 isn't broken to the upside. Only a break below 138.61 will kill the bullish count entirely.

Zooming in on the hourly chart (see below) we can see, that the minor resistance-line from 149.38 has been broken, which favors that a firm bottom was seen at 140.46, but again we need at break above 143.39 to relieve the downside pressure.

EUR/USD - The possible bullish count under threat

The possible bullish count is under serious thread with the break below 141.55, which has opened up for a continuation towards next support at 140.25.
As can be seen the Andrews Pitch Fork support is sitting near 140.25 too.

Zooming in at the hourly chart, we can see that the last part of the decline from 149.38 is followed by double divergence, which is a sign that a reversal is nearby.

Short term only a break above 143.39 and more importantly 144.23 confirm, that an wave (iv) is over.
At no point can a break below 138.61 be accepted.

Crude Oil - Fractal Formations

Please see my post from yesterday first:

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI6ZUCs2L9aKPAnEKIGCbp3sJvqVZpxlCY-W3S2ebYM_W_3Mm-sDpAPnHVFvJqOXdpSysv-kAnNnsE6ifUhK98JUcnJXSgVWnKDWeZq0UrMIKjQlpIWqycxHKOU8MgTGqPfRNe4UE3e7wx/s1600/image002.gif

The rising diagonal turned out just as expected and we are now headed for support at just below 95 and again near 92.00, If this support breaks too then the next target will be at 70.04.

Short term we now can see fractal formations, the current formation being the child formation to the mother formations, which was triggered yesterday. The childe formation will give way for the next decline towards the 95 area.

We also have a nice Picth Fork (red dotted lines) in the making, and the theory says, that there is an 80% chance that the mid-line will be reached.

EUR/USD - Strong support ahead

As resistance at 144.41 held firm we are now seeing strong support at 141.55 challenged. The odds for this support to protect the downside is very high. The MACD-Indicator is showing positive divergence supporting a bottom soon.
A break above 142.76 would be first good indication that the double Zig-zag from 149.39 is over, while a break above 144.23 confirms the bottom.

A clear break below 141.55 will be of concern and would call for a continuation towards 140.25.

Gold and Silver - Ready for next leg lower?

Could the big top be in place in gold? Yes, but I do think it's more likly we are in a wave iv correction. I expect the 1,420 - 1,430 area to be the target for this correction.

Looking at the shorter term picture (see below) we have slightly exceeded the 50% retracement target for wave A at 1,518.68. that could mean a continuation higher towards the 61.8% retarcement target at 1,532.21 as long as support at 1,506.90 isn't broken, but short term we are heavily overbought and wave B could end any time now.


Silver is pretty much the same picture. Silver accelerated much more than gold, which means the possibility for a big top is much higher here. Still I think, that we are only in a wave iv, which should correct towards the 29-30 area whith a possibility of a decline towards the 25 - 26 area.

Looking at the shorter term picture we can see the possibility for a "Bearish sling shot" building. At the same time we have retraced 38.2% of the wave A, therefore we could be on the edge of the next decline (see below)

Crude Oil - Ready for the next decline

After metting support at the first support near 95 Crude oil has been rising in an rising diagonal (wedge). We are now just below the 50% retracement target of the first decline from 114.83 to 94.63. As wave c of the diagonal can't be the shortest the ongoing wave e can not go higher than 106.41 (see the hourly chart below).

Longer term a break below 92.58 will call for a decline to at least 70.04.

EUR/USD - Tested support area

After testing the support-area between 141.55 - 142.82 (lowest level has been 142.53) whats needed now is a break above 144.41 to get the first serious signal that a bottom might be in place and confirmation of a bottom will be a break above 145.87.

I'm still looking for a move towards 152.74 in wave v from 128.71. At this point only a break below 141.55 will be of concern.