Elliott wave analysis on Gold and Silver

 Gold

I'm looking for a series of lower Lows in the coming days weeks and wave C continues lower. I would expect wave C hit just below 1,165 where wave C is 1.618 times longer than wave A and we could even see it lower towards the 1,012 - 1,045 area.

You can see my last post regarding gold from April 17 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/04/elliott-wave-analysis-on-gold-crude-oil.html

Silver

Is already making new Lows and will like continue to 18.63 and possibly even towards 13.83 in wave C of Y.

The break below support at 21.34 has confirmed the long term corrective rally from 4.00 in November 2001. If we had counted this rally as impulsive we would now have an overlap between wave 1 and 4, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. The former support near 26.00 will now act as strong resistance if tested.

Please see my post from April 25 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/04/elliott-wave-analysis-on-silver.html

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold, Silver and Copper and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - The correction from 134.99 went deeper into the resistance-zone, than I expected, but it hasn't changed the bigger picture, which still points down to below 123.28 longer term.
Short term a break below 137 will confirm that the next leg lower has begun.

Gold - We finally saw the break below 1,795 to confirm the decline towards 1,660 area, which most likely will provide a nice buying oppotunity. We will fine-tune as we get there, but for now we should be focused at the downside for the next decline towards 1,701. Resistance will be in the 1,788 - 1,795 area.

Silver broke below the Pennat support-line at 40.06 yesterday, which calls for a much deeper decline. Normally break-downs from Pennats are pretty aggressive. The first target to look for is the 33 - 34 area. Resistance is at the broken support-line near 40.50, which now has turned into resistance. We could and should expect this line to be tested, but it is not a certainty

Copper - If we see a close below 401 tonight the uptrend since 124.75 has collapsed and points to a decline towards the 363 - 366 area as first target. In the bigger picture I expect this decline to go below the starting point of wave [B] at 124.75, so we should have much more downside to come, but remember a close below 401 is the trigger.

Crude Oil - is doing everything in its power to hang on to the correction, but it should only be a question of time before we will see the next decline below 87.83 confirming the start of the next decline towards the 72 target-area.

Gold and Silver - Ready for next leg lower?

Could the big top be in place in gold? Yes, but I do think it's more likly we are in a wave iv correction. I expect the 1,420 - 1,430 area to be the target for this correction.

Looking at the shorter term picture (see below) we have slightly exceeded the 50% retracement target for wave A at 1,518.68. that could mean a continuation higher towards the 61.8% retarcement target at 1,532.21 as long as support at 1,506.90 isn't broken, but short term we are heavily overbought and wave B could end any time now.


Silver is pretty much the same picture. Silver accelerated much more than gold, which means the possibility for a big top is much higher here. Still I think, that we are only in a wave iv, which should correct towards the 29-30 area whith a possibility of a decline towards the 25 - 26 area.

Looking at the shorter term picture we can see the possibility for a "Bearish sling shot" building. At the same time we have retraced 38.2% of the wave A, therefore we could be on the edge of the next decline (see below)

Gold and Silver - Correcting before one more new high

Both Gold and Silver is correcting the latest rallies before one more new high should be seen. As can be seen on the top chart of Gold. For Gold we are now hitting the long term resistance line, which should produce a correction towards the 1,492 - 1,510 area, before the next rally higher.



Silver has been correcting since April 25 and should find its next low in the 41-43 area before its next rally higher towards the 56 area.