S&P 500 - Is the top in place or do we need one more rise?

(Click on the pictures to enlarge)

We are just 2% from the ideal target at 1,048, will we have one more rise to fullfil the ideal target or not?

All requierments for the wave [II] to be finished or very close to is in place:

* The ideal target is almost fullfiled.

* The volume during wave [II] has been falling, which points towards a rally of poor quality.

* Positive Sentiment (89% bulls) is at or above what we saw in October 2009.

* More and more prominent economist, asset managers, Government Institutions and of cause.

Ben Bernanke has declared that a recovery imminent.

In my world it doesn't really matter if we are about to see one more rise closer to ideal target at 1,048 (pride maybe - for calling the top), but from a riskmanagement point of view, the risk for missing the beginning of wave [III] is much bigger, and will instantly leave you with hope one more "chance" to sell near or at the top.

A break below 1,023.39 would be first minor warning, that wave [III] has begun, while a break below 1,016.44 (light green wave 4 low) would add confidense that wave [III] has begun.

It is time to scale into shorts or at least to protect you portefolio. One way could be using Ultra Pro Short - (SDS). This will give you a 2:1 leverage to the short side. There is lots of other insturments to use, but this is one of the more simpler one.