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Monday, August 17, 2009

Copper - Odds favor that and important top is in place

(Click at the picture to enlarge)

Copper is a tricky one, as you could easly count the upmove from December 23 2008 and to 292.35 on August 13'th as a five wave rally, but to me that would be the wrong counting. In my view the odds favor a double Zig-Zag correction, which has found its top just under the 61.8% correction targte of the fall from 408.25 i July 2007 to 125 in December 2008 at 300.

I am currently looking for a move back into the channel (near 275) and a break below 270.75, which would call for a move to the bottom of the channel problably near the 245 - 246 area. A break below the channel-bottom would add strong confidence to my count and call for at least a move towards 220, but most likely much lower and ultimately below the December bottom at 125.

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