Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Elliott Wave Analyses of Gold - Long-term correction unfolding from the 2011 high at 1,920.80


Gold Monthly Time-frame 

Long-term correction unfolding from the 2011 high at 1,920.80 

I was searching the Internet and came across this long-term Gold chart dating back to 1792. At that time gold was trading at 19.39 and we have since seen a long-term bull-trend that peaked at 1,920.80 in September 2011.
I have labeled the long-term chart from (1) to (5), which indicates that a top of Cycle degree completed in 2011 at 1,920.80 and the ongoing correction is of the same cycle degree. If this is correct, then we should be looking years ahead before the correction from 1,920.80 comes to its conclusion. Probably something in the neighborhood of 20 years.
Normally, the first corrective target we should be looking for i the bottom of wave four of one lessor degree, which in this case would be the low of wave (4) at 252 in August 1999. If, we however calculate the 61.8% corrective target of the rally from 19.36 to 1,920.80 that will provide us with a target near 745,00 and we have the bottom of wave 4 of (5) just below at 682.41, so I will be looking for this target-area, but will keep the long-term target at 252 in mind.
The decline from 1,920.80 to 1,046.23 only marked wave (A) of  the correction in cycle wave II and wave (B) currently is unfolding. My preferred count for wave (B) is that a triangle consolidation is unfolding. But let me be clear, that this ongoing correction in wave (B) still can take on a number of other shapes. Add to that (B)-wave corrections often take a number of unexpected twists and turns. But for now, let's keep what works and the triangle count has worked out pretty well till now.
Within this triangle, we saw wave A rally in three waves from 1,046.23 to 1,375.04 and wave B turned lower from 1,375.04 to 1,122.51 and wave C higher towards 1,323 is now unfolding.     
Please also see my long-term count from June 19 - 2016 here

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