Friday, July 22, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/JPY - Possible long term [B] wave triangle unfolding

AUD/JPY - Possible long term [B] wave triangle unfolding 

My preferred long term count for this cross shows that a [B] triangle is unfolding. The construction of this [B] wave triangle began from the top seen in October 2007 at 107.86 to a low of 55.07 in October 2008 as wave (A). Wave (B) of the triangle rallied of the 55.07 low to a high of 105.43 in August 2013 and since that high wave (C) has been unfolding. Wave (C) completed it's three wave decline from 105.43 as a double zig-zag correction to 72.42 and wave (D) has just begun.

With wave (D) just beginning now, we can expect many months of upside pressure towards an ideal target at 103.65 before the final wave (E) begins to unfold.

Zooming in on the daily count for the decline from 105.43 the double zig-zag combination becomes clear and shows that the expected rally in wave (D) is only in its very early stages.
I'm looking for a rally to 83.71 to complete the first five wave rally as wave A, which should be followed by a three wave corrective decline towards 78.88 before the next strong rally in wave C.

At this point there is no way of telling whether the expected rally in wave (C) becomes a possible double zig-zag or a more simple zig-zag rally, so I will just keep my focus on the ideal 103.65 target and let the rally of the 72.42 tell me how it wants to unfold.

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