Saturday, September 27, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of USD/SGD - How to channel your way to the perfect wave count

USD/SGD how to channel your way to the perfect count
Let me start by saying, that this method can't be used every time, but when it can, it will be a tremendous help.
Since the December 2001 high at 1.8558 we can see three well defined channels, which forms wave 1-3 and 5. All requirements to the decline is obtained. Wave 3 is not the shortest as wave 1 is shorter. Wave 3 and 5 is equal in length.
But you should notice another thing. Before the 2001 top, we can see a well defined triangle, notice how the triangles support and resistance lines later define long term support and resistance. The triangle resistance-line even turns to become the larger channel support-line, which catches both the bottom of wave 3 and 5 perfectly.
You don't get it more nicely than this.
With the wave 5 bottom in place at 1.1989 in July 2011 we should be looking for a major rally back to the top of wave 4 of one lessor degree, which in this case comes in at 1.5578. I will be looking for a break above 1.2700 as the first strong indication, that an upside acceleration will be seen, while a break above 1.3199 is needed to confirm the rally back to 1.5578.
Ideally support at 1.2475 will protect the downside for the break above 1.2700 and higher.

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