Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Expect a break below the triangle support-line soon

Gold expect a break below the triangle support-line soon

I think it was about time I updated the daily chart for gold, as one can loose sight of the bigger count, when looking only at the 4-hourly chart.

As can be seen, we have seen a test of the triangle support-line near 1,273 and this line has held for now, but it should just be a matter of time before, we will see a break below this line and more importantly a break below 1,240.20 (the low of wave d) confirming that wave 5 lower is developing.

With wave e and 4 in place I have re-calculated the targets for wave 5. The first target comes in at 1,060.20, where wave 5 will be 38.2% of the distance travelled from the top of wave 1 at 1,920.84 to the bottom of wave 3 at 1,179.83 subtracted from the top of wave 4 at 1,345.28. The next target will be the 50% target of this distance, which comes in at 972.77, which also happens to be the measured triangle target. The fact that we can calculate the 972.77 target in two different ways, make this the most likely downside target.

Short term I would like to see resistance at 1,291.70 protect the upside, but if broken it indicates that we saw a short term low at 1,272.75 and a correction towards the 1,297 - 1,303 area is developing before the next strong decline below the triangle support-line near 1,273. Only a break above 1,322.69 will delay the expected downside pressure.

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