Thursday, July 17, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Long term target reached, look for a bottom soon

EUR/GBP at its long term target, bottom should be seen soon

With a low printed at 0.7887, we are just 4 pips above the target-area between 0.7868 - 0.7883. Whether we will see a perfect test of the target-area or not it not important to my, what's important is, that a long term bottom should be expected soon for a major rally.

The first strong indication of a bottom being in place, will be a break above minor resistance at 0.7920 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.7980, which will confirm that a bottom is in place for a rally to at least 0.8155 on the way higher to 0.8467 and higher.

You might wonder, why I expect a long term bottom in the 0.7868 - 0.7883 area?

The first reason is, that at 0.7883 wave 2 will have corrected 88.6% of wave 1. Second waves area allowed to correct 100% of wave 1, but a bottom will often be found near the 90% corrective target.

The third reason is, that we can see a clear divergence between price (making new lows) and the indicators (not making new lows). This is a sign of loss of momentum and tells us, that a bottom could be seen soon.

All together indication of a possible bottom being in place soon. Only a break below the starting point of wave 1 at 0.7763 will invalidate the long term bullish count. 

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  1. Just curious - when you get a chance -
    Do you consider a break of resistance a better signal of a bottom OR a clear 5 wave pattern, in this case to the upside, on a lower time frame ? Thanks for your thoughts. Charles

    1. Hi Dojitrader,

      I consider the five wave pattern on a lower timeframe to be the better signal.

      Kind regards

  2. Forex trading tipsSELL EUR-INR BELOW 81.58 TGTS 81.43, 81.28 SL 81.78.