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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; Facebook and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - With the decline to 1.2886 we might have seen wave a of y and should be looking for a minor rally in wave b towards 1.3000 and maybe even 1.3048 before the next downside pressure sets in. I'm still looking for a decline closer to the base channel mid-line near 1.2801. That said we are looking at a correction and anything can happen.
 EUR/JPY - Has meet its ideal correction target at 100.13 (the low has been 100.16) and we should now be looking for a break above 101.44 and more importantly 102.10 which will confirm a rally back towards the top at 103.85. That said I still think the correction from 103.85 is only partly done and we need more time to finish the correction. Price-wise the correction has done enough, but not time-wise.
 Facebook - Has rally nicely from 17.55 and has ended a minor five rally at 23.37 however we should see more upside once the minor correction from 23.37 is done. Actually it could already be done as it has corrected 50% of blue wave i. A break above 21.21 will ease the downside pressure, but we need a break above 22.61 to confirm the bottom for the next rally higher towards at least 26.11, but I still expect a rally back closer to the B-wave high at 33.45 longer term.
Crude Oil - Is wave 2 already finished? We have seen a nice back-test of the broken support-line and this former support-line turned into resistance once broken. However we need a clear break below 90.97 to confirm that wave 3 down is well under way. As long as support at 90.97 protects the downside we could see one last rally to just above 93.84 before the next move lower.
Longer term I'm still looking for a break below the 77.27 low.

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