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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

GBP/USD - Triangle developing?

Diversanta has asked for my view on Cable (GBP/USD) as can be seen on the chart above, my preferred count is, that a big triangle is developing. Wave-c most likely ended at 167.45, which a break below 161.45 and more importantly 159.34 will confirm. That said as long as support at 161.45 isn't broken to the downside, the is a risk that we are in a simple zig-zag correction, which would call for a continuation towards 177.66 before wave-c find it's final peak.

Looking at the same chart with my proprietary indicator (see below) one can see, that the latest peak at 167.45 hasn't been confirmed by my indicatore, which means that we have a negative divergence, which is a warning, that the ongoing trend is weak and most likely already has peaked.

A Triangle needs five legs so if wave-c is done we still need wave-d (down to the 151 - 152 area) and wave-e (up to 159.25 and maybe 161-162 area) before the triangle is finished and the next break lower can be expected

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for that honored my desire, but I have a question.Can we believe that wave C, could be developed as the ending diagonal,and below the waves to be counted in the following way https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/4n0THyhqysB_qZ-XYRgtvyDMQFE7KP6l3dT6GQUuSgQ?feat=directlink

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  2. P.S. It is possible that wave 4/C may not yet completed, and to develop in time ...

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  3. Hi Diversanta,

    I do think that your ending diagonal C-wave is a possibility as long as support at 161.45 isn't broken. I don't favor that count, but we must stay flexible to the possibility.

    One thing is for sure and break above the top of wave a at 170.42 will kill the triangle count and leave us with the zig-zag count and continuation towards 177.66

    Regards
    EWS

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