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Monday, May 30, 2011

EUR/USD - Possible wave i is finished

If we are in the last impulsive wave up since the rally from 128.63, then red wave i was and leading diagonal. The overlapping structur indicates, that the only possible "impulse" structure that has this character is the Leading Diagonal.
The slight break above the diagonal resistance-line and failure to hold it, confirms that the the minor red wave (v) is finished and we should now be in red wave ii down towards 140.67 - 141.08 area, from where the next rally should begin. Adding confidence is, that we didn't see any divergence on the MACD-indicator at the 143.34 top.

That said we should be aware, that the rally from 139.81, because of the overlapping structure clearly could be an correction. If it's a correction, then we should see a break below 139.81 and more importantly 139.61, that would invaldate any bullish counts and call for a much deeper decline towards the 131.16 area.

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