S&P 500 and DJI - I need to change my count

On Tuesday I wrote, that the DJI and the S&P 500 indices should make a new high alongside new new high made in the DJT, but I still held on to the possibility, that both the DJI and the S&P 500 didn't have to make a new top and thereby make a Dow Theory non-confirmation top.

Looking at the S&P 500 index above, that possibility is now a very very low problability option at this point, almost testing and breaking above the 1,150.41 high calling for a continuation towards 1,154.56 where wave c of E would equal wave a of E in length.

I have spend quite some time trying to uncover the pattern developing and the very best count (now my favorit) is that an expanding diagonal (See the Elliott Wave Principle page 37) is developing.

As can be seen wave E is currently ongoing. If wave c of E is equal in length to wave a of E, then we should see a top near 1,154.56. If however wave E breaks above 1,154.56 is can't rise higher than 1,165.53, where wave E would be equal in length to wave C. In this case wave C represents wave 3 and wave 3 can never be the shortest wave.

The pink box show the ideal top and time for wave c of E. It's very common that the upper part of the box will be broken slightly before topping out. Looking at the time aspect the ideal top will come on Tuesday the 16 of March.

I just want to add one important thing. I still regard the rise from the 666.79 low on March 6. as wave [B] and not the start of a new impulsive rise, that means that the low of wave [A] at 666.79 should ultimately be broken in wave [C]



The reason I picked the S&P 500 as my main index this time (I'm an DJI man) is that it's much more clear in its structure.

Ideally the DJI will break above the January 19 high at 10,729.82 too, but as can be seen, it's much weaker than the S&P 500 so we could see a truncated (See The Elliott Wave Principle page 35) E-wave high below 10,729.82. If that happens it will make a Dow Theory non-confirmation, which is often seen at important tops or bottoms.

However if the January high at 10,729.82 breaks the ideal target will be 10,784.52 where wave c of E would be equal in length to wave a of E. From a timing point of view a top should be seen on March 16.

The absolut maximum wave E can reach is 10,885.95, which is where wave C (3) and wave E will be equal in length. Again wave C, which represents wave 3 here can't be the shortest (See The Elliott Wave Principle page 31).