By coincident I fell about some recearch he had done in regards to the Spiral Calendar. I will not try to pick in Jim's article, because its explains it self and what he thinks perfectly and much better than I can. I hope Jim don't mind me bringing he article in full, but it's exellente. A truly amazing discovery - Congratulation Jim.
October 16, 2009 (+-1 day) might become a very important day. This is a follow up on my post dated September 25, 2009. It should be in my archive and will give closer detail on how I came up with Spiral Calendar projections I’ll discuss below. The preamble to this “follow up” condenses and says the same thing as the September 25, 2009 post.
Chris Carolan discovered a Fibonacci/lunar relation between 1929 and 1987 and documented it in his excellent book “The Spiral Calendar”. He identified 4 dates in 1929 that reappeared near exactly (within the projection measurement error of 1 day) in 1987. Forgetting about his astrological reference to the lunar months in relation to the first equinox of each year, he related 1987 to 1929 by taking the square root of the 29th (“F29”) number in the Fibonacci sequence (514229 or “F29”) and multiplying by the synodic lunar interval or 29.5306 day. So, the square root of 514229 is 717.0976 X 29.5306 = 21176.32 days. Take 4 key dates in 1929 add 21176.32 days and you get the comparable date in 1987 in relation to that crash year:
I discovered and have not seen it written elsewhere that 2009 preliminarily appears to be reflecting the Spiral Calendar dates in 1987 and 1929. So what? It’s easy to project any of the Spiral Calendar Fibonacci computations forward…..just math. And you can take the 4 dates in 1929 and project them by every Spiral Calendar sequence you won’t get a single date in 2009. But you can with 1987. The 25th (“F25”) Fibonacci Spiral Calendar sequence gives you the four dates explained in the above Excel chart in 2009; July 11, 2009 (significant low), October 16, 2009 (final highest high in the crash year), November 23, 2009 (secondary high before a crash) and December 10, 2009 (crash).
So, you can make a 1987 projection to 2009; what makes this other than pure numerology? Nothing. Any extrapolation of history to the future is numerology absent physical or deterministic mathematical support. Gaussian statistics (bell curve) and variants, even given widely accepted causal rationalization, is numerology; it’s just very persuasive and accepted. The Spiral Calendar projection is different only in that it is not very persuasive. There isn’t a whiff of causality.
But there are two ‘conincidents’ that preliminarily support these projections. First, F29 interval between 1929 and 1987 is 21176 days or 58.0 years and the F25 interval from 1987 to 2009 is 8088 days or22.1 years. Their relation is .381, a near perfect and highly prominent Fibonacci relation. Second, July 11, 2009 is the first of four projected dates, is now behind us AND IT WORKED. July 11, 2009 should have been a prominent low next preceding the final highest high before the crash. Recall on July 11, 2009 everyone was following the unconfirmed head and shoulders top and vastly expecting a crash. It didn’t happen. Instead, July 11, 2009 was a clearly significant and widely unanticipated bottom (July 11 was actually a Saturday and July 10 was the bottom). I’ve updated a chart I posted September 25 and this is what the IMPLIED FRACTAL looks like to date:
If one had noticed this 4 date projection on July 10, 2009, you would have gone long to October 16, 2009 (not followed the H&S fiasco) and would have made, yet to be determined, but probably greater than 24% on an unlevered long trade. Then you would have gone short to sometime in early November and long into the 3rd date of November 23, 2009 (the F25 projected secondary high before the crash). Here’s an idea of the proportions of price change between the four dates (note that I’ve added a fifth date, namely the first bottom after the highest high):
So, IF October is a valid projection, the 1929 and 1987 models would indicate a substantial first wave decline of 10% to 17%. I think it could be greater than either because we are in the last stages of the peak crash season (as documented by Stephen Puetz, Chris Carolan and Peter Eliades). December 10 is late for a crash. And, many Ellioticians believe the projected wave commencing after October 16 is at a very high degree of Elliot Wave trend; EWI would show it as intermediate (1) of primary circle 3, of cycle c, of supercycle (a) of grand supercycle (IV).
Three notes of caution. Chris Carolan has not identified his own Spiral Calendar projection from 1987 to 2009 as significant, either by oversight or has dismissed it. I cannot confirm it either way despite efforts to contact him and his followers. Carolan’s website shows his computation based on 2007 and 2008 dates as indicating a top on October 11, which has not worked (more than one day off at this point). Second, Carolan originally noted the coincidence of 1929 versus 1987 dates in relation to the number of new moons following the spring equinox but distilled his thinking in terms of Fibonacci and synodic lunar intervals. 2009 is one moon greater than 1929 and 1987 so that gave me pause when I first considered these dates. I’ve rationalized the contradiction in noting the true computation is not relative to the equinox but it is a Fibonacci computation in lunar intervals. Third, this is the purest form of numerology; not hint of causality.
So, all we have is four dates and two “coincidents”. If I’d projected this six months ago, and said it would occur BECAUSE of a .381 relation in the years between 2009 and 1987 divided by the years between 1987 and 1929, I’d say the chances of four monument dates in 2009 being successful would be incalculable. If I’d noted that item and July 11, 2009 turned out to be a successful projection, I might say the odds of the other 3 being successful were within the realm of number system but still negligible. But, since we are narrowing in on October 16, 2009 and despite the emotions in the last months since July 11, 2009, it is still viable. I am very interested.
If October 16, 2009 prints a new recover high (or October 15 or 19), I will be giving far greater weight to the implications of this model. I’ll be expecting an Elliot Wave primary 3 of cycle c to begin very soon thereafter. Granted it’s only an intermediate 1 of primary 3, but it can be crashworthy IMO. Remember the character a c wave is that it is not expected by anyone; certainly, with a blowoff top in the making today, October 14, 2009 on top of INTC and JPM earnings, who expects a crash?
But who expected, on July 11, 2009, that the market would not have fulfilled the great head and shoulders top de jour of that date much less been 24% higher three months later?
Good luck,
Jim
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Just a word or two: We don't know yet if Jim or I was right in our prediction. A new high will be allowed on Monday in regards to Jim's prediction. A new high wouldn't fit well into my reason, but as I think Virginia Jim's discovery is way more important than mine I will not question a new top set on Monday. That said I do think that all the right ingridiences and the wave look is just right for a top having been set Friday, but time will show.
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