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Friday, August 28, 2009

This is why stops are so important








My call for a possible top in DJI and S&P 500 was premature. The "old" targets near 9,667 for DJI and 1,048 in S&P 500 is still on. It doesn't mean that I would chase the rise, trying to squeeze the last dime out of this rally. If anything I would use this oppotunity to scale into short-positions.

More of a surprise to me, was the rally in EUR/USD and the AUD/USD. Looking in the rear-mirrow did we get any warnings? If any it was the lack of acceleration when minor wave 3 was expected, but it isn't a rule that you must see strong acceleration in wave 3. What we can conclude is that the break above EUR/USD 143.75 left us with a clear three waves down from 144.46 and thereby a clear Zig-Zag. That calls for one more new high above 144.46 and I'm looking for a move closer to the 145.50 area in the coming days.

In AUD/USD the last part has taken the shape of a triangle. The nice thing about triangles is, that they breakout in the direction of the main trend (in this case up), but triangles also predictes, that it is the last move in the direction of the trend before a move back to the triangle apex (at least) and often the last move for the entire move. In this case we sould see one more move closer to the 85.75 area, before returning to at least 83.38. In this case I do think this will end the entire upmove from 62.45 and thereby wave C.










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