Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - Wave 2 could complete anytime now

Wave 2 could complete anytime now

In my last long-term update from June 18 - 2016 I was looking for a final dip closer to 0.9880 to complete the decline from July 2008 peak at 1.6038. 

The decline completed December 2016 with a dip to "just" 1.0352 and has since staged an impulsive rally in wave 1 to a high of 1.2556 in February 2018. This impulsive rally has been followed by a wave 2 correction to the 61.8% corrective target at 1.1194 (the low has been seen at 1.1107). 

Wave 3 is now ready to take over for a new impulsive rally 1.4693 where wave 3 will be an 161.8% extension of wave 1. 

Ultimately I will be looking for a break back above the July 2008 peak at 1.6038. 

A break above minor resistance at 1.1348 will be a strong indication that wave 2 finally is complete and wave 3 is developing. 

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Break above 1,360 call for rally towards 1,710

Break above 1,360 call for rally towards 1,710

Gold has tried to break above resistance at 1,360 for a long time now and with a clear break above in place, we should see gold continue to climb in the weeks and months ahead towards the 1,710 target.

The rally of the 1,046 low is clearly corrective in nature - Wave B is a triangle. indicating that this rally will be a three wave affair to complete larger wave (B) in a much larger triangle, which I expect will last another 11-12 years before completing and setting the stage for a shot to the moon.

The former resistance near 1,360 will now work as support and protect the downside for the expected rally higher. 

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Elliott wave analysis for Crude Oil - The corrective rally from 26.06 is now complete

Crude Oil - The corrective rally from 26.06 is now complete 

In my June 2016 post I call for Crude Oil to continue to rally towards the long-term resistance line  (you can see that post by clicking here).

We have now seen a test of this resistance line. Not a prefect test, but close enough to fulfill that target. So at a minimum, we should see a decline to 57.48 and more likely closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 45.47 of the rally from 26.06 to 76.90.

Could we see a return and maybe even a break below the February 2016 low at 26.06? Yes! we could. That said, we should be painfully aware, that the corrective rally from 26.06 could become much more complex and the ongoing decline only is a X-wave that binds two corrections together.

What we can rest assure of from here is, a general downside pressure for weeks ahead and a decline to at least 57.48 and likely even closer to 45.47 before the possibility of a new rally to test the long-term resistance line again.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/JPY - Look for upside acceleration in wave 3/ of 3 the wonder to behold...

GBP/JPY - Monthly

GBP/JPY - Weekly

GBP/JPY - Daily

GBP/JPY - 4 Hourly 

Cups with handle

GBP/JPY - Look for upside acceleration in wave 3/ of 3 the wonder to behold...

A break above minor resistance at 153.41 will release a lot of build up energy and should cause GBP/JPY to accelerate higher towards 159.00 as the first minor target, but longer term, a continuation higher to 164.85 and 172.00 should be expected. 

The classic technical analysis also shows a nice pair of "Cups with handle" formation ready to take GBP/JPY much higher (see chart 5). 

If my long-term count is correct, then we are entering wave 3/ of 3, which normally is the strongest of the waves and the prices action here, often becomes almost vertical. 

So be ready to pull the trigger for a nice big rally - "The wonder to behold" as Pretcher says it...  

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Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - Peak expected near 187.17

Facebook - Peak expected at 187.17

Facebook has seen an amazing rally since the September 2012 low at 17.55. This wave [3] rally should be close to completion - Ideally near 187.17 for a correction in wave [4]. As wave [2] was a simple and deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex and shallow correction in wave [4]. The ideal target for this wave [4] correction is seen in the 114.77 - 115.93 area. 

The corrective structure of wave [4] should be either a flat or a triangle consolidation. If the corrective structure proves to be a triangle, then the low will be seen early (likely in the A-wave down). 

Short-term a break below minor support at 168.89 will be a good indication that Facebook has peaked in wave [3] and wave [4] is developing. So tighten up your stops and don't fall in love with Facebook at these levels.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

GBP/USD - Monthly Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Daily Elliott Wave Count

GBP/USD - Correcting in wave 2 before the rally higher

Cable is fighting a lot of opposing forces at the moment. The rally in wave 1 stopped just below the 30 year horizontal resistance-line. This line acted as support for Cable since January 1986 and was broken in June 2016, which shifted its position from support to resistance. However, I think the dip below soon will break back above this horizontal pivot point near 1.3700. 

From an Elliott wave point of the view, my long term count shows, that an expanded flat B-wave is developing. We saw wave A rally from the 2009 low at 1.3504 to a high of 1.7191 in July 2014 from where wave B took over. The decline in wave B became almost exactly 138.2% longer than wave A and completed with the test of 1.1950 in October 2016 from where an impulsive rally in wave C took over. We saw wave 1 rally from the 1.1950 low to a high of 1.3658, just below the horizontal pivot point near 1.3700 and the correction in wave 2 is currently developing, for a decline close to the 1.2780 - 1.2822 from where a strong rally is expected in wave 3. 

The long-term cycle analysis also supports a rally in the coming years. The long-term cycle bottom in November 2016, whereas the price bottomed the month before. The next cycle peak is not seen before November 2020, which supports the expectation of a continuation higher over the coming years. 

If we zoom in to the daily chart, we can see, that wave 2 already has completed wave A and B and wave C lower towards the 1.2780 - 1.2822 is developing. Once wave C and 2 completes near the support cluster a strong rally will be expected in wave 3.  

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Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon

Elliott Wave Analysis of the German DAX - A potential large degree top could be in place soon

In my post from October 5 - 2017 I called for a continuation of the uptrend towards the 13,424 - 13,435 this target was eclipsed today and a large scale top could be seen soon.

A large degree five wave rally can be counted from the March 2009 low of 3,589 and from February 2016 a minute degree five wave rally can be counted.

To indicate that the top is in place, a break below 13,197 and more important a break below support at 12,931 will be needed.

The risk/reward ratio no longer favor the upside, so tighten your stops.

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