Gold and Silver - Ready for next leg lower?

Could the big top be in place in gold? Yes, but I do think it's more likly we are in a wave iv correction. I expect the 1,420 - 1,430 area to be the target for this correction.

Looking at the shorter term picture (see below) we have slightly exceeded the 50% retracement target for wave A at 1,518.68. that could mean a continuation higher towards the 61.8% retarcement target at 1,532.21 as long as support at 1,506.90 isn't broken, but short term we are heavily overbought and wave B could end any time now.


Silver is pretty much the same picture. Silver accelerated much more than gold, which means the possibility for a big top is much higher here. Still I think, that we are only in a wave iv, which should correct towards the 29-30 area whith a possibility of a decline towards the 25 - 26 area.

Looking at the shorter term picture we can see the possibility for a "Bearish sling shot" building. At the same time we have retraced 38.2% of the wave A, therefore we could be on the edge of the next decline (see below)

Crude Oil - Ready for the next decline

After metting support at the first support near 95 Crude oil has been rising in an rising diagonal (wedge). We are now just below the 50% retracement target of the first decline from 114.83 to 94.63. As wave c of the diagonal can't be the shortest the ongoing wave e can not go higher than 106.41 (see the hourly chart below).

Longer term a break below 92.58 will call for a decline to at least 70.04.

EUR/USD - Tested support area

After testing the support-area between 141.55 - 142.82 (lowest level has been 142.53) whats needed now is a break above 144.41 to get the first serious signal that a bottom might be in place and confirmation of a bottom will be a break above 145.87.

I'm still looking for a move towards 152.74 in wave v from 128.71. At this point only a break below 141.55 will be of concern.

EUR/USD - Close to a bottom

The price-action since the 149.39 does look impulsive, but I suspect it's a c-wave, which should soon be over. Yes we could see a little more downside action towards 141.55 area, but that should be it, setting the stage for the next move higher towards 152.73.
I have made some adjustment to my count, but overall I'm still see the bullish count outweigh the bearish alternatives.

On the hourly chart below there is a couple of different counts, but I have chosen the nine-count, as I have difficulties saying which wave extended

CRB Index - Long term view

Yesterday I wrote about the CCI-Index and some of the most important commodities (see the link below)

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/05/commodities-cci-index-tested-major.html

I thought it could be interesting looking at the CRB-Index too. The above chart shows the CBR-Index since 1962 and we can see two nice looking 5 wave advances. The first ending at 337.60 in November 1980, while the second ended at 473.97 in July 2008 with an overthrow of the rising channel. The important question is whether we have seen a Super Cycle top at 473.97 or it "just" was the top of Cycle wave 3. I'm inclined to count it as a Cycle wave 3, which means we are now in a Cycle wave 4. As wave Cycle wave 3 was a double zig-zag we should expect either a flat or a triangle as wave 4. The first two waves is most likely done and as wave B "only" corrected 61.8% of wave A, then a triangle is the most likely count for Cycle wave 4.
If this is the case we should look for wave C of 4 down towards the 264.75 area.

If we zoom in on the last five wave rally and the following correction it's very interesting to observe, that we have fractal formations as the ending of the impulse and wave B (see the chart below)

USD/JPY - Wave 2 might be done

We did overshoot the ideal 61.8% correction target at 80.29, but it doesn't change the overall picture of wave 2 having bottomed or being very close to bottoming.
As long as resistance at 80.65 isn't broken to the upside, then we could see one more decline below 79.56 (max. 78.78), while a break above 80.65 will indicate the bottom already being in place for the next rally higher towards at least 88.19, where wave 3 will be equal to wave 1.

EUR/USD - New micro-count

As I wrote yesterday a break below 147.73 invalidate my micro-count a would force a new micro-count, but it didn't necessarily mean a trend-change.
I expect support at 144.92 will holde for the next rally higher, but a break would call for a continuation down to the 141.55 - 142.35 area, where strong support will be found (see the daily chart below).