Commodities:


CCI- index tested major channel-resistance in 674 - 676 area. A break below 618 will confirm that a major top is in place and call for a much deeper decline.


Crude oil once again saw a top at the 11 week period, which was the fourth time in a row.
Expect support near 95, but it does look like a major top is in place for a decline to below 32 in wave [C].



Gold too tested its channel-resistance in the 1,569 - 1,570 area. I do think we are missing one more new high, but support in the 1,420 - 1,430 should ideally hold. A break below 1,420 and more importantly 1,308 would call for a major top in place.

Silver also tested its channel-resistance, but here again I'm looking for one more new high closer to the 53.36 area. Ideally support at 33.50 will hold, but we could see a move towards 31, before the final rally higher. A break below 25 will confirm, that a major top is in place already.

Copper has probably already seen a major top calling for a much deeper decline. The break below support at 407 is critical for copper and does indicate that an important top is in place with the 462 high.

The break below the Andrews Pitch fork support-line calls for a much deeper decline in Copper too.

Softs also look toppish. Wheat too looks to have topped and a break below 670 will call for a decline to the low 400 area and possibly 348 longer term.

Cotton, which has been the high flyer of the soft's has seen an important top too. We should soon see a test of the red Andrews Pitch Fork mid-line in the low 180 area, but longer term we should see a much deeper decline towards the 110 - 130 area.

An other bubble blown and gone...

USD/JPY - We are here....

First take a look at my previouse posts on this cross here:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/usdjpy-topped.html

and here:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/usdjpy-nice-looking-picture.html

The correction towards the 61.8% corrections-target of wave 1 has not been the most easy to read, but the way I see it is, that we have seen a double zig-zag.
There is a very nice relationship between the first and the second zig-zag. At 80.29 the second zig-zag will be exactly 61.8% of the first zig-zag, which is just 2 pips above the 61.8% corrections-target, so we have very strong support here.

If wave a and c of the second zig-zag is going to be equal in length, the we should see wave c reach 79.98. No matter which of these target will mark the end of wave 2 we are very close and should soon see wave 3 higher. The first indication that wave 2 is over is a break above 80.75 and confirmation will be a break above 81.20.

Stay tuned!

EUR/USD - Ready for the next rally

We saw the expected rally to a new high yesterday. If my micro-count is correct we are close to see a powerful wave three rally driving up to and probably through 151.44.

Invalidation of my micro-count will be a break below 147.73, which will force a recount, but not change the bigger picture calling for more upside.


The most bearish alternate count is that we are in a wave two, which should be over very very soon and turn EUR/USD hard down in a wave iii of 3 (see the chart below).
Invalidation of this possibility will be a break above 151.44.

EUR/USD - Still in a minor correction

My micro count shows that we currently is in wave c of pink wave ii. This minor c wave can take us down to 147.37 where wave c will be equal to wave a.
A break above 148.40 would be first indication that pink wave iii is under way for the next move higher towards resistance at 151.44.

EUR/USD - One more first wave...

Yesterday we saw a minor break above 148.81 to 149.02, which the following price-action labels as another first wave up. If this micro-count is correct than we are currently tracing out pink wave ii setting the stages for a series of powerfull wave threes up.

Short term support is now found at 147.13 and in the 146.30 - 146.50 area. Under no circumstance must 144.92 be broken, as that would break the bottom of wave i pink, which is absolutly not allowed and would force a re-count.

Gold and Silver - Correcting before one more new high

Both Gold and Silver is correcting the latest rallies before one more new high should be seen. As can be seen on the top chart of Gold. For Gold we are now hitting the long term resistance line, which should produce a correction towards the 1,492 - 1,510 area, before the next rally higher.



Silver has been correcting since April 25 and should find its next low in the 41-43 area before its next rally higher towards the 56 area.

EUR/USD - Ready the the next rally

The minor flat correction from 148.81 has fulfilled all requirements, which means we are now ready for the next rally above 148.81 towards resistance at 151.44. A break below 147.60 will be of concern, but only a break below 147.13 will cause a review of the micro-count, as that would create an overlap between minor wave i and iv.

Longer term I expect wave iii to hear for resistance at 156.26, where wave iii will be 1,618 times longer than wave i.