EUR/CHF - Topping!

We are in a topping process. A break below 130.52 will open the downside for a move towards at least the 128.84 - 129.31 area, but we could see a follow-through towards the 127.41 - 127.72 area. The big question here is whether we have seen a big flat correction from 124.00 or we have seen wave 1 and 2 and is now in wave 3, where sub-wave (i) finished at 132.36. I slightly favor the bullish scenario as wave 1 from 124.00 to 132.04 does look impulsive. The wave structure of the current decline will tell us which count is the right on.

USD/JPY - Topped!

My short term count favor that we have seen a top with the test of 85.54 ending wave 1 up from the important low at 76.99. We should now see wave 2 lower towards at least 82.28, but more likely 80.28, where wave 2 will have corrected 61.8% of wave 1.

Adding support to my expectation of the top is the very distinct double divergence and the break below "0" on the MACD indicator. We are also seen the wave 2-4 uptrend-line being broken all calling for the top being set at 85.54.

AUD/USD - Topping?

I haven't written about AUD since the end of January. Link to that post below: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/01/audusd-time-for-next-part-of-decline.html In that post I said, that a break above 102.53 would target the 105-106 area, which is where we are now. Therefore it's time to take a new look at the Aussie. First lets take a look at the monthly chart. The rally from the bottom at 47.73 in April 2001 to the top at 94.01 in November 2007 was a nice five wave rally. This rally was followed by an Expanded flat correction down to 60.04 in October 2008. Since then we have seen a new five wave rally up to 105.03 which means, that we now is in my target-zone. Therefore the obvious question will be, are we to find the top soon? Zooming in on the daily chart and the final rally since 60.04 we can see a clear five wave rally. We have double divergence at the MACD indicator and finaly we are looking at to resistance-lines just above. All pointing towards a top soon, but are we at the top?

Zooming in further on the hourly chart and the last part of the rally since 97.04, we again can see a five wave rally into the target-zoon. The final rally seem to be an Ending Diagonal. I would like to see a throw-over the Ending Diagonal resistance-line followed by a break below 104.18, which will be the first minor confimation that the top is in place for a decline to at least 98.00 and probably 97.04. A clear break below 97.04 will extend the losses towards the top of the 87 area.

Looking at the entire rally from 47.73 the best fit is, that an Zig-Zag has formed. The ideal target for wave C is 106.47, where wave C will be equal to wave A in length. That said we have to be open to a much more bullish case. The rally from 60.04 could be just wave i of a much bigger wave 3 higher. If this is the case I would expect the near term correction to be rather small followed by a very powerfull wave iii of 3 rally through the top of wave i. This is not the preferred count at this point, but we have to stay flexible.

EUR/SEK - Breaking up!

First lets take a look at the monthly chart. The rally from 804.30 in 2000 to the top at 1,178.60 in 2008 is clearly in three waves. This rally most likely ended wave [A] (not shown on the chart). The following decline from 1,178.60 to the bottom at 869.30 is wave [B] (or an X wave if one prefer W-Y-Z). As wave [B] have "only" retraced 81% of wave [A] we are looking at an Zig-Zag. One could make a case, that we have only seen the wave 3 of C ending at 869.30 and we are now looking at wave 4 higher towards the 939.65 - 942.80 area. No matte which count is the rigth one, we are at least headed for 939.65 in the coming weeks/months. The daily chart below shows a clear break above the long term trend-line resistance. I would expect the rally from 869.30 picking up speed for the move higher towards 939.65.

EUR/USD - Topped or topping!

I have added some extra information to the short-term picture. First let me note, that my putting the different v's just above yesterdays top, doesn't nessesarily mean that we have seen the final top. As long as 142.50 protects the downside we still could see a move higher towards the 144.25 area. That said we have a lot of evidence in the short term picture, that the top could be in place with the test of 143.50. First we have time-equality (pink boxes) between wave (i) through wave (iii) and wave (v). Second we have double divergence between wave (iii) and wave (v) and a minor divergence between red wave iii and red wave v. Thrid we have broken above 142.81 and fourth we have a five wave Expanding Ending Diagonal, which has fulfiled all requirments. All points adding to a possible finished structure since 128.71. The only thing needed now is a break below 142.50, which would add to the probability that the top is in place. Any risks? Yes it's possible that the top at 143.50 only was red wave iii and we still need red wave iv and v. I don't prefer this count, but only a break below 140.59 would kill that possibility for good.

EUR/USD - Topping!

First lets take a look at the daily chart. We are currently "fighting" with the downtrend from 160.38. Even if we get a break above it I will only have to dismiss the above count if we see a break above 146.95. I do count the decline from 160.38 as an diagonal in which case wave D can't be longer than wave B, which allows for a move towards 146.95, but not above.

Zooming in on the last part of the rally from 128.71 is in its final stages. The question whether we will see the top here or we will need a move closer to the channel resistance near 144.25. As wave iv and (iv) didn't break below the support-line I wouldn't expect wave v and (v) to break above the resistance-line. It could but doesn't have to.

I have changes my micro-count in regards to wave v. The direct break above 143.00 aborted my previous count and the above count seems to fit the picture better.

Apple - Telling us something?

The Monthly chart is showing us a possible ended five wave rally since the low at 3.19 in 1997 to the high at 364.90 in early 2011. A rally of 361.71 points, that took 164 months (look how theres numbers gets very close to the Fibo-numbers 3.618 and 1.618) One should also note, that the final rally from the bottom of wave 4 from the channel support-line went to the channel mid-line, where it did stall. Finally on the long time chart it worth to notice, that wave 3 extended and was over 423.6 time the length of wave 1, while wave 5 became almost exactly 1.618 times longer than wave 3. All add confidence to a possible top or to a ongoing topping process. Looking at wave 5 going from a low at 78.20 to the high of 364.90. It too was a nice looking five wave rally. The break below the wave 2-4 channel support could be a warning, that the entire rally from 3.19 is over, but we need some more evidence, therefore zooming in even closer at the last part of the rally brings to the last chart below.

As can be seen we have massive negative divergence on the MACD indicator, we have broken below the wave 2-4 supportline and we have a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. What we need is a break below support at 326, which will trigger the S/H/S top, but will at the samme time be the first confirmation that the above count is correct.