Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; AUD/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD has almost reached my next target at 131.35 at this point and with the current speed I would not be surprised to see a deeper decline towards 128.65.
As long as resistance at 132.36 and more importantly 133.10 isn't broken to the upside the pressure will be down, that said we are oversold in the short term and should be on alert for a bottom soon.

AUD/USD has broken the lower Pitchfork support line, which could mean acceleration to the next target at 92.11 or that the short term decline is about to get exhausted. As we are entering wave iii down we must accept the possibility of acceleration as the most obvious call.
Short term it will take a break above 96.72 to ease the downside pressure.

S&P 500 broke important support at 1,110 and the close below the neck-line has activated the shoulder/head/shoulder top with a 813 target. Short term the neck-line now acts as resistance.

Looking at the MACD-indicator we are nowhere close to be oversold so the next important support at 1,019 should soon be seen.

Gold is looking better, but nothing is really settle yet. It's still an open question where we are headed higher (my favorit option) of we will see a new test of important support near 1,500, which if broken will open up the downside.

Crude oil is on its way down towards my 72 target. we should soon see support at 76.08 broken confirming the next leg lower. Resistance is now at 79.58 and should not be broken as a break above here will ease the downside pressure and give us a new test of strong resistance at 84.

AUD/USD - Close to the top?

In my post from October 27'th:

(http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2010/10/audusd-we-should-see-one-more-new-high.html

I wrote that we where tracing out a flat correction (see the chart below). This flat correction evovled perfectly and we have made a new high for the five wave rally that began at 60.73 in November 2008. This rally is now in wave (v) of v of 5 and a top could be in place any time now.

I would wait for a five wave decline and sell the following three wave rally with a stop just above the start of wave 1 down. A break below 98.57 would be a very good clue, that an important top is in place.

AUD/USD - Possible fractals

Possible fractals could be building. The child fractal should be close to its top, if the fractal view is to stay. We should not see a move above 87.76 as that would call for a new test of 88.62 and maybe even a slight new high, but it will not destroy the longer term picture calling for a move down to at least the 75 area.

AUD/USD - The correction from 80.70 is almost over

The ideal target zone for the correction has been reached and it's just a question of time before the correction is finished. The low 85 area has been reached and there is a small posibility that we could see a slight extension higher to 85.85, but I would not wait to long and hope too much for that outcome.

A break below 84.84 would confirm the top is in place.

AUD/USD - The decline is extending

The support near the 84 area only provided a minor correction. The next support area will be seen near 81.19, if we are going to see a correction from there we might just see a correction up to the 85.00 - 85.67 area before the next legg lower.

Remember the decline in AUD/USD can be very very steep just take a look at the chart to the left and see what happend in mid to late 2008.

AUD/USD wave iii is about to begin

The Aussi dollar was the front runner in the currency market bottoming already in October 2008 and was one of the really big gainers in the rally since March, but the leader was also the first one to top-out. Topping on November 16 showing us that a tidal shift was under way.

I would like to see a break below 89.44 and 88.82 confirming the top for the next big down move.



Wave ii was a bit tricky as we managed to break slightly above wave c at 93.23, but the best count is a double zig-zag where the second zig-zag peaked at 93.26 and wave iii is now in process. The first target will be 89.44 with 88.82 thereafter, but it should only be a question of time before important support at 88.82 is broken.

AUD/USD - Top in place?

Above is my prefered count showen on a daily and hourly chart.

Looking at the daily chart we can see a impulsiv decline from 98.49 (July 15 2008) to 60.04 (October 27 2008), which I have labled red wave [A]. From 60.04 red wave [B] has unfolded with a likely top in place at 94.05 (November 16 2009).
As can be seen on the daily chart we are currently testing the supportline established since March 2009 and a break below this support line will confirm that red wave [C] is unfolding.
The rise since March 2009 has taken on a bearish wedge shape, which also will be triggered upon a break below the support line at 90.58, calling for a sharp decline.

Zooming in on the daily chart the hourly chart is showing a five wave decline from 94.05 down to 90.58(slightly breaking below the support line in minor wave i). Wave ii ended yesterday at 92.77 with an almost perfect 61.8% retracement of wave i at 92.72. If my count is correct minor wave iii is in its early stages and a break below important support at 90.58 will soon be seen. Only an unexpected break above
92.72 would call for a new high above 94.05.

AUD found its low already in late October 2008 and thereby was amongst the leaders of the ongoing rally, will it also lead the way down?

It's a bit early to tell, but it should come as no surprice if it does.

Australia has benefited a great deal because of its geographly placement close to China delivering a lot of the commodities China needs, but remember that the Shanghai Composite topped already in early August. The Shanghai Composite also bottomed in late October 2008 as the AUD did, leading the way up for the equity markets. Overnight the Shanghai Composite took a nosedive with a 3.45% fall, which very well was the start of wave 3 of C down to below the October 28 2008 bottom at 1,664.92.

AUD/USD - A firm top is most likely in place

(Click at the pictures to enlarge)

After a 47.55% rise since October 2008 the Aussi dollar just finished a five wave C rally. This C wave rally has meet strong resistance in form of the trend line back from October 2001 that was broken to the downside September 29 last year.

The five wave C rally has ended with a expanding triangle (best seen on the hourly chart). These formation are very important top formations and are very reliable. I'm now looking for a break below the 86.00 area to confirm, that wave C and red wave [B] has finished.

A break below 85.82 will at least confirm a move down to the bottom of wave iv at 77.00. But red wave [C] should ultimately take us down to and below the bottom of red wave [B] at 60.04.