Elliott wave analysis on EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP

Diversanta asked me for the short term count in EUR/GBP, so here we go.

We are clearly in an uptrend and the decline from 0.8815 is corrective and is wave 4, but is wave 4 finished or do we need one more decline. The rally of the 0.8398 low is overlapping in its structure, but it could be a leading diagonal and therefore a wave i. However, to confirm that we are in wave 5 higher we need a break above 0.8551 and more importantly a break above 0.8598, that would confirm that wave 5 higher towards 0.8918 and possibly 0.9043.
The flip-side is a break below 0.8398, that would call for a decline closer to 0.8287, but this scenario is not the preferred one at this point.

EUR/GBP - More downside to come

I thought, that the wave [4] correction was over at 81.18, but the latest development has change that view. The overlapping structure call for more downside and the next obvious correction-target is 76.92 - 77.82 area.
The entire decline from 97.99 is filled view overlapping waves, which is only seen in corrective waves, fitting the wave 4 count. The ideal time for this wave [4] bottom is near April 13.

EUR/GBP - Time for wave iii to kick in

It's time for wave iii to kick in now - stay tuned

EUR/GBP - Wave 2 most likely in place

EUR/GBP has most like just ended wave ii of 3 of [5], therefore buying EUR against GBP here should pose very little risk, when taking the potential into account.

The longer term target for wave [5] should be above the top of wave [3] at 97.99. As it can be seen on the Daily chart above the rally since the bottom in 2001 has been nicely contained by the red channel borders. When a possible five wave impulsive rally is contained as well within the Elliott channel as is seen here then wave [5] is most likely to hit the upper channel border before ending.

The short term count (seen below) shows that a rally past the top of wave i at 85.59 will confirm that wave iii is under way for a move towards at least 86.43 and more likely 87.56.

EUR/GBP - Triangle or a complex double correction?

After topping at 98.03 (wave 3) on the last trading day 2008 (30. Decmber 2008) EUR/GBP has been in a long sideways correction. The question is, if this is a triangle or a complex double or maybe triple correction?

I do favor the Triangle concept. First triangles are common in wave 4, they tell us, that we will have one more thurst in direction of the main trend and then a important long term top or bottom. In this case a top.
If my assumption is correct then we can expect a move closer to the 91.60 area as legg D in the triangle calling for legg E down. Only a break above 94.12 (legg B) will aborte the triangle look making the complex double correction the favored count.

Non the less ultimately we should see one more rally above the top of wave 3 at 98.03 for a move closer to par (100.00) in wave 5.