DAX, FTSE100, BOVESPA and SENSEX - All in big flat corrections

The German DAX has broken down from a Diamond top-formatio, which has a target near 6,000, but as I see the price action since late 2007 as a big flat correction calling for wave [C] to reach the bottom of wave [A] at 3,577.

The UK FTSE 100 index has finished a triple top formation and first obviouse target is 4,790.

But longer term we should see a break below the bottom of wave [A]. Ideally the target of wave [C] should be near 2,827.

The Brazilian Bovespa is also in a big flat correction calling for a decline to the bottom of wave [A] at 29,435. We should see a test of the mid-line of the major Andrews Pitchfork.

The Indian Sensex is also in a big flat correction since late 2007 and should also be headed for the bottom of wave [A] at 7,688 longer term. On the way the mid-line of the major Andrews Pitchfork will act as strong support, but should ultimately be broken. Short term we need to break below 17,295 to finally confirm that we saw a top at 21,108.

DAX looking toppish and the VDAX breakout

The German DAX Index is looking toppish, as the expanding ending diagonal might have topped with the test of 6,901. A break below support at 6,617 would add confidence in my call for a top.

The VDAX has broken out resistance of a falling wedge, which should result in a rise towards 28 and possibly even 32 over the coming weeks and months. The expected rally in the VDAX also adds credence to my call for a possible top in the DAX Index.

DAX - Wave 2 is very close to its peak

Just a quick word on the German DAX-Index.

As can be seen on the chart sub-wave b is now equal in lenght to sub-wave a and the 61.8 % retracemnet of wave 1 is just above at 5,840.31. So sub-wave c and wave 2 is very close to its final peak from where wave 3 down can begin.

Stay tuned.

DAX - Wave 5 of Black circle wave 1 is on

All odds favor that wave 5 of Black circle wave 1 is ongoing. I do expect this wave will decline to near to the 5,345 - 5,350 area before Black circle wave 2 can be expected.

The ideal target area for black circle wave 2 is from 5,720 (50% retracement) to 5,810 (61.8% retracement), but as the general mood is deteriotating fast it could be less, but time will show

DAX - Minor wave 4 is most likely done

Minor wave 4 most likely ended just below the ideal target-area at 5,746-5,754 (the top has been 5,733)A break below 5,667 would confirm the top calling for a move closer to the target near 5,500 as the bottom of wave 3

DAX - Count favors that wave 4 is ongoing

My favorit count (as per above) favors that wave 4 is ongoing. Wave 4 is becomming a more complex wave, which is quite normale. I do look for a move closer to 5,740 - 5,750 before ending wave 4, but the risk is of cause that some kind of triangle is developing.

DAX - My favorit count says one more decline...

My favorit count calls for wave 4 to end just below 5,649.30 and then one last decline to 5,500 (red square) ending wave 3 before wave 4 sets in for a move higher towards the 5,715 area.

A direct break above 5,649.30 will point towards an unfinished wave 4 (irregular flat) calling for a move higher towards the 5,750 area before the next decline can be expected.

DAX - Textbook waves

On Monday the 25 of January I worte that we should see a continuation of the decline towards ideal wave 3 target at 5,567. It went to 5,579 (just 0.002% from the ideal target), After hitting wave 3 target near 5,567 I expected a correction back to the triangle apex, which I had close to 5,680, and we have seen a correction reaching 5,675 (just 5 points or 0.0009% from its ideal target).

This kind of predicting can only be made thanks to R.N. Elliott's discovery of the Wave Principle.

Looking further ahead, we can expect a decline towards at least 5,500 as wave 5 of wave I target. That said I would not be surprised to see a continuation down to the next level of strong support near 5,352 before wave 5 ends, but we will have to see how the internal structures of wave 5 of wave I develops.

DAX - Headed for its wave 3 target near 5,567

As can be seen the waves a froming nicely and the wave 3 target at 5,567 is just ahead.

Minor wave 4 became a triangle telling us, that after this last move down close to 5,567 we shall have a correction to at least the apex of the triangle near 5,680.

As wave 2 was a simple zig-zag we should expect a complex wave 4 correction. problably somting of double correction with its ideal target near 5,740 before the onset of wave 5 down ending wave I

German DAX index has finished its triple zig-zag

As can be seen on the chart above, the German Dax Index is breaking down from the March 2009 rising trendline. The break below the trendline confirms that the triple zig-zag is finished and thereby ending wave [B] and the onset of wave [C] decline below the end of wave [A] at 3,594 longer term.

Short term the next important support to look for is near 5,612, which is the 61.8% correction of minor wave c. A break below 5,612 would accelerate the decline to 5,481and 5,382



The VDAX shows a classic throw-over and a quick return above the ending diagonal calling for a important bottom and a rally towards the channel-top.

DAX - Possible topping action ?

Wave [B] from early March has become a triple zig-zag. looking at the final zig-zag (red a-b-c)depending from where you messeaur the start of wave c it has entered the ideal topping area from 6,055 - 6,150. The Candle that entered the target-area became a Shooting star (which we also saw in FTSE 100 yesterday). This candle points to a fading momentum calling for a possible top. If todays candle becomes a black candle the Shooting star from yesterday is confirmed as a topping pattern




The above Chart is a closer look at the prize-action since March showing the confirmed Shooting star and a break below 5,949 would confirm a nearby challange of the uptrendline from early March, which currently is at 5,797. A clear break below the uptrendlinie calls for a much bigger decline

DAX - Possible topping action

(Click at the pictures to enlarge)

It's very possible that the German DAX index has topped with the 5,885.66 high set on October 16.

The 5,885.66 high was just above the percent from the 50% retracement at 5,870.23 of the fall from 8,151.57 to 3,588.89 and it was less of half a percent below the 5,914.47 where wave C would equal wave A.

On the hourly chart we can see a small Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern, which was activated with the break below 5,761. A break below the left shoulder bottom at 5,695.83 would call for drop to at least 5,595.82.

The current action is very fitting to my view of a possibly top set in the DJI on Monday.