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Showing posts with label Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; Gold and Crude Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; Gold and Crude Oil. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; Gold and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - I have changed my count as the decline from 1.3071 has become to big and the rally from 1.2804 does look like a three wave rally, so what is going on here? We could still see a deeper decline in wave 4, but i think the possibility of a big wave 4 triangle building is a better fit and that will be my working count until disproved.
We have seen the first three waves of the triangle and "only" needs two more (wave D and E). I expect wave D to move higher towards 1.2990 or just above here before the last E-leg should be seen.
 EUR/JPY - Has mirrored EUR/USD and the best fit for wave 4 has changed to a triangle too. Here too we are missing the last two legs of the triangle before we will see the final rally higher in wave 5.We should at least see a rally to 101.84 in wave D and likely even a bit higher before the last leg of the triangle sets in.
 EUR/NZD - Has reached its ideal target and we should soon see a rally higher. I will still be looking for a break above 1.5832 as the first good indication that wave ii is over and the powerful wave iii of 3 is under way. I will expect support at 1.5739 to protect the downside for the rally above resistance at 1.5832.
 Gold - Is building a minor sideways consolidation before the next rally higher will be seen. The coming rally should at least reach 2,158.84, but it would likely be prudent to expect an extension higher towards 2,550.59 and even 3,184.70 should not be ruled out in a possible moonshot.
Crude Oil - It didn't take long before the possible series of waves one's and two's was invalidated, which opens up for a move slightly higher towards 95.05 and maybe even 96.00 before the next decline will be seen.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; Gold and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - Seems to be ready for the next more powerful leg higher towards 1.3050 and the first target for blue wave 5 at 1.3197.
 EUR/JPY - With the break above 101.20 the impulsive character increased dramatically and we should now see wave moving higher through resistance at 102.10 towards 103.85 towards the ideal target for wave 5 near 105.70.
 EUR/NZD - The rally from 1.5453 is clearly impulsive in character. The main question is whether we have wave iii in place at 1.5780. It could well be as wave iii at 1.5780 was almost exactly 2 times longer than wave i, which is a very common extension target. However if the correction from 1.5780 become very shallow the odds will favor, that wave iii will last a little longer and end at 1.5890, where wave ii will be 2.618 times longer than wave i.
 Gold - Seems to be ready to break clearly through resistance at 1,791 and confirm that wave 5 is under way. The first target for this wave 5 will be at 2,158.84, but wave 5 could extend even higher towards 2,550 and maybe 3,184.
We should always be careful with major wave fives as this is when the crowed finally get interested and push prices substantially higher.
Crude Oil - Has begun its next leg lower towards support at 78.67 and 77.29. Be aware the we have a long term support-line near 82.00, which could provide substantial support.