Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - I think the Triangle concept has just grown on me. I like it more and more and I think we could see one more low closer to the 1.2860 - 1.2870 area, before wave C is done and wave D starts building. I would be looking for wave D to top out near 1.3110.

 EUR/JPY - We might see the ongoing small correction a little higher, but once it's done we should see the next powerful decline towards 101.45 on the way to the next ideal target near 100.19.
At this point only a break above 104.42 will invalidate this count and call for a new high above 104.59, but that is not my preferred count at all.

EUR/NZD - Did we see the C-leg of the expanded flat correction from the 1.5967 high end with the test of 1.5690 yesterday? It's clearly a possibility and a break above 1.5787 will be the first strong indication, that is indeed the case, while a break above 1.5845 confirms the bottom and the next powerful rally higher. However, as long as resistance at 1.5787 has not been penetrated we still could see one last decline towards the ideal target-area between 1.5635 - 1.5652, from where the next rally could commerce.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - The triangle scenario continues to work well. Wave D of the triangle could be in place with the test of 1.2992, which a break below 1.2915 will confirm. However as long as 1.2915 stays untouched we could see wave D move slightly higher towards 130.13 before wave D is finally in place and wave E of the triangle can develop. Wave E will be the last wave within the triangle and once this E-wave is in place the underlying uptrend will resume towards the upside. for a move higher towards at least 1.3324.

 EUR/JPY - The mirror picture of EUR/USD. Here the D wave of the triangle seems to be firmly in place and we should look for the final E-wave lower towards the 100.97 - 101.22 area from where the final rally higher towards at least 104.72 should be seen.

EUR/NZD - The latest development has invalidated the series of waves one's and two's, instead the rally from 1.5700 is impulsive, but the overlapping nature leaves only one possible option, which allows this outcome, which is the Leading Diagonal. Short term we should look for red wave ii of black wave iii towards 1.5782 before the next powerful rally higher towards 1.6127 and much higher longer term.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

This will just be a quick update, but I will update more in details later today. The break above 1.3004 in EUR/USD has changed the picture to a more bullish one and we can see that it spills over to the other EUR-crosses too.

 

 EUR/USD - The break above 1.3004 has invalidated my count, that we where in a red wave 4 correction waiting for a decline in red wave 5 to below 1.2042. With the break above 1.3004 we have to look for a more bullish count, which is shown above, this count is now my preferred count. It tells us to look for an A-B-C correction higher towards 1.3490 and likely even 1.3827 before wave E of the B-wave triangle is finished.

 

 EUR/JPY - The failure to follow through on the decline from 100.62 indicates, that red wave 5 is extending and therefore we should look for much higher levels before red wave 5 and black wave 3 is finally in place. The first target for red wave 5 is now at 101.95, but I would expect it to rally higher towards 103.46 before it finally runs out of steam.

EUR/NZD - The failure to rally again from the base channel mid-line is of concern. Yes we are currently testing the base channel support-line, but odds do favor that we saw the the first impulsive wave end at 1.5902 and is currently in wave 2 towards the 1.5323 - 1.5434 area, from where we can expect the next impulsive rally to begin.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Just keeps marching on higher. We can see a clear divergence on the indicator, but that just tells us that this move is loosing momentum and that we should expect a top soon, but will that be before the all important 1.3004 invalidation point? I think so, but if we break just one tick above resistance at 1.3004 my working count will be invalidate and a more bullish count adopted. That does not mean I will be overly bullish just that we will see EUR/USD move higher in a bigger correction from 1.2042.
That said a break below 1.2814 and more importantly 1.2754 will indicate that a top is in place and downside pressure will gain momentum for a decline towards strong support in the 1.2468 - 1.2500 area.

 EUR/JPY - So we finally tested the ideal wave 3 target at 100.60. However looking at the short term reaction from 100.62 is looks like we need one more new high towards the 100.70 - 100.75 area, before the top is finally in place for a correction in black wave 4 towards 98.45 and likely even down to 97.98 in a complex correction (Remember Elliott's alternation principle - Wave 2 and 4 should alternate. If wave 2 is a simple and deep correction, then wave 4 should be shallow and complex and that's what we have here).
Short term a break below 100.29 will indicate that the top is in place.

EUR/NZD - With a test of 1.5633 we should be ready to explore the upside again for a move towards 1.5974, but the ideal target for this first impulsive wave is at 1.6200. However that should just be the first impulsive wave in a long row of impulsive rallies higher. Support at 1.5633 should now protect the downside for a break above 1.5760 and more importantly 1.5831 to confirm the next rally higher.
A break below 1.5633 will cause caution.