EUR/CAD - Look for downside acceleration soon

EUR/CAD look for downside acceleration soon

After the top at 1.5586 we have seen an impulsive decline in red wave i to 1.4997, this was followed by a 50% correction of red wave i in red wave ii and I'm now looking for downside acceleration towards 1.4340 in red wave iii. Short term a break below 1.4997 will add considerable downside pressure. This should only be the start of a much bigger decline towards strong long term support at 1.2185 (see the long term count).

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Crude Oil breaking resistance, more upside to come?

Crude Oil - Minor Resistance Line Broken

Wave ii is in place and wave iii ready to take over for a rally above minor resistance at 102.35 and more importantly a break above 104.99 for a continuation higher to 110.42. Only a break below support at 98.85 invalidates the bullish count (see the long term alternate count for crude oil in the member area).

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Facebook - Wave C lower unfolding

Facebook

Has just ended wave B of a zig-zag correction from 72.71 and wave C should now take us lower towards the equality target between wave C and A at 47.55. A break below support at 55.88 confirms the 47.55 target.

Have a great weekend
EWS

Crude Oil - near the end of the correction?

Crude Oil

JT asked me for a 4 hour chart on crude oil, The above is an 8 hour chart (hope that's ok).

I'm still bullish on crude oil as long as support at 98.85 protects the downside. Ideally support between 100.65 - 101.20 will protect the downside for a break back above 102.35 confirming that the next impulsive rally higher is developing, Longer term I'm looking for a firm test of strong resistance at 110.71 and a close above here will call for a continuation higher towards 130.00. However, resistance at 110.71 has held firm about three years now and it will take allot to break it.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - The correction just became more messy and complex

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.99

R2: 141.79

R1: 141.62

Current Spot: 141.54

S1: 141.35

S2: 140.99

S3: 140.60

Technical Summary:

The correction from 140.08 just became even more messy and complex. We did see a break below 141.23, but there was no follow-through and we are now back into the range just below resistance in the 142.00 - 142.17 area. For now we will just have to wait for this cross to provide us with confirmation that the correction from 140.08 is over and that the decline lower towards 136.33 is developing. That confirmation will be given upon a break below 140.99 until then we will just have to accept the possibility of a move closer to 142.17 before it finally comes to an end.

GBP/AUD Long and Medium Term Counts

 

GBP/AUD Long and Medium Term Counts

Since the March 2013 low at 1.4375 we have seen a very strong rally to 1.7483, which marks wave 1 and wave 2 was a shallow decline to 1.6641 barely correcting 23.6% of wave 1. This is a sign of underlying strength and a sign that wave 1 extended. When wave 1 extends normally the top of wave 5 will come in at distance traveled in wave 1 added to the bottom of wave 2, which in this case will call for wave 5 at 1.9749. However a much more bullish count could be unfolding, which only had wave (i) of 3 from 1.6641 to 1.9186 and wave (ii) corrected a little more than 50% of wave (i) and wave (iii) higher is now unfolding towards at least 2.1704 and possibly higher. However, time will have to show, which count is the correct one.

Apple - Rally to 622 unfolding?

Apple Medium Term Count
Since the 385.12 low in mid-April 2012 we have seen a double zig-zag rally in wave X. The first zig-zag rallied from 385.12 to 513.64 and was followed by a x wave to 447.25 and the second zig-zag is currently unfolding. We saw wave a from 447.25 to 575.11 and wave b was likely a triangle and wave c is now under way towards 622 to end wave X and set the stage for a new decline in wave Y

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Finally ready to break lower?

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.84

R2: 141.79

R1: 141.49

Current Spot: 141.46

S1: 141.21

S2: 140.98

S3: 140.65

Technical Summary:

Support at 141.23 protected the downside for yet another high at 142.00, but the following decline does look impulsive and it should just be a matter of time before support at 141.23 is broken clearly for a continuation lower towards 136.33. Short term we could see move higher towards the 141.79 - 141.84 area as long as minor support at 141.30 protects the downside, but once this minor support is broken I will be looking for an acceleration lower. Even support at 141.23 should be no match next time it is tested. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short term count

EUR/GBP

The decline from 0.8400 became a more complex double zig-zag combination. However, we finally have seen a low for wave 2 at 0.8193. I will now be looking for minor support at 0.8216 to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 0.8247 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.8260 and 0.8310 confirming a rally towards at least 0.8588 and possibly even higher.

Elliott wave analysis - Starbucks

Starbucks Short Term Count

Since the 82.49 high a zig-zag correction is developing. This correction is not only correcting the rally from 43.04, but the entire rally from the 7.06 low in November 2008. This will call for a prolonged correction both time and price wise. However, for now we have reached the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 43.04 to 82.49, but after a minor rally towards the 73.31 - 74.54 area I will be looking for renewed downside pressure towards at least 63.73 and likely even lower towards 57.08.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.52

R2: 142.17

R1: 141.82

Current Spot: 141.68

S1: 141.45

S2: 141.23

S3: 140.98

Technical Summary:

The failure to break clearly below support at 141.23 has kept the correction from 140.08 alive. As long as support at 141.23 protects the downside we could see a move closer to strong resistance near 142.17, but from here or upon a break below 141.23 a new impulsive decline towards 136.33 should be seen.

Longer term I'm still looking for a much deeper correction of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69, with the ideal target being near 126.00

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty 50 and USD/INR - Long term counts

Nifty 50

The above count is my least bullish count. This count "only" calls for a continuation higher towards 7.043 before a major correction should take place. If we break clearly above 7.043 I will update my much more bullish count that call for a continuation much higher.

USD/INR

We have seen a correction to the channel resistance line at 59.59 and have since seen a break above resistance at 60.15, which is the first good indication that the correction from 69.22 is over and a new rally to above 69.22 is developing. Longer term a break above resistance at 63.49 is needed to confirm the rally above 69.22.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Red wave iii lower developing?

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.17

R2: 141.82

R1: 141.68

Current Spot: 141.38

S1: 141.23

S2: 140.98

S3: 140.65

Technical Summary:

I'm looking for a confirmed break below support at 141.23 to indicate wave iii lower towards 136.33 is developing. However, I do think that short term resistance at 141.68 will be strong enough to protect the upside for for the confirmed break below 141.23 indicating that red wave iii lower towards 136.33 is unfolding. On the way lower towards 136.33 support will be found at 140.98 and again at 140.23.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.52

R2: 142.17

R1: 141.82

Current Spot: 141.78

S1: 141.64

S2: 141.23

S3: 140.98

Technical Summary:

As long as support at 141.64 and more importantly as long as support at 141.55 protects the downside I will be looking for the finally move higher towards 142.17 before red wave iii lower towards 136.33 takes over. Only a direct break below 141.55 indicates that red wave ii ended early and red wave iii lower already is developing. A break below support at 141.23 confirms that red wave iii is under way towards 136.33

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Is wave 3 higher finally ready to take over?

EUR/GBP

The wave 2 correction from 0.8400 became even more complex than expected, but it finally seems at it's over and wave 3 higher towards at least 0.8610 can take over.
To confirm that wave 3 is under way a break above resistance at 0.8283 and more importantly resistance at 0.8310 needs to be broken.
However, Elliott's first rule said, that wave 2 never ever can break below the starting point of wave 1, which is at 0.8154 and that Means we have a very favorable risk/reward situation at the current level.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold- Short term count

Gold

The decline from 1,331.16 is clearly impulsive and confirms that wave b of D is over and wave c lower towards 1,217 is developing.
Short term I would like to see a break below support at 1,293.54 to confirm that wave iii lower is developing for a decline towards at last 1,265 before a new meaningful consolidation should be expected.

Elliott wave analysis of DJI - Short term count

Dow Jones Industrial Index

The decline from 16,631.63 does have impulsive characters, but to confirm that an important long term top is in place, then resistance at 16,456.12 can't be broken. Any break above 16.456.12 will confirm that the decline from 16,631.63 is corrective and a new rally to and likely above 16,631.63 should be seen.
If however, resistance at 16,456.12 does protect the upside for a break below 16,227.31 and more importantly below support at 16,063.20 the impulsive structure will be confirmed and a powerful decline in wave iii lower should be expected.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.17

R2: 141.76

R1: 141.47

Current Spot: 141.18

S1: 140.90

S2: 140.64

S3: 140.22

Technical Summary:

The break above short term important resistance at 141.55 made me go back to my original short term count (see my update from yesterday here) . This count shows that red wave i ended at 140.08 and since then red wave ii has been developing. It is possible that red wave ii ended with the test of 141.76 yesterday, as that marked the 50% corrective target of red wave i, but the decline from 141.76 does not really look impulsive and therefore I think that one more new high closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 142.17 will be seen before red wave iii takes over for a decline towards 136.33.

Elliott wave analysis for EUR/JPY - New perferred short term count

EUR/JPY - New preferred Count

With the break above 141.55 I have gone back to my original count, which had red wave i from 143.47 to 140.08 and red wave ii is currently unfolding towards 141.76 and possibly even higher towards 142.18 before red wave iii will be ready to take over for a decline towards 136.31.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.23

R2: 141.89

R1: 141.55

Current Spot: 141.41

S1: 141.15

S2: 140.90

S3: 140.60

Technical Summary:

I do expect more downside pressure, but green wave ii has become much larger than expected, however, it is allowed to correct all of green wave i, which means a return to 141.55, but it can not break above this important resistance even with one pip as that would change my preferred short term count to a more complex blue wave iv correction. If however, resistance at 141.55 does protect the upside for a break below 141.15 and more importantly a break below 140.82 I will be looking for green wave iii towards 139.72 and maybe even slightly deeper towards 139.43.

Gold - Short term count

Gold

The b wave correction from 1,277.70 ended at 1,331.16 and we should now see the final c wave lower to 1,217 to end wave D of the triangle consolidation which has been developing since late july 2013.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.06

R2: 140.90

R1: 140.65

Current Spot: 140.48

S1: 140.29

S2: 140.08

S3: 139.43

Technical Summary:

Ideally we will see resistance at 140.65 protect the upside for a break below 140.29 confirming the next decline towards the ideal target for blue wave v at 139.43. Once blue wave v is in place we should look for a minor correction higher towards 141.55 and maybe slightly higher before the next impulsive decline is expected. Longer term I'm still looking for a much deeper decline towards at least 133.52 and possibly even lower towards 126.00 before this correction is finally over.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.29

R2: 140.98

R1: 140.87

Current Spot: 140.55

S1: 140.42

S2: 140.08

S3: 139.43

Technical Summary:

Important resistance at 141.55 protected the upside to perfection and I'm now looking for the final decline in blue wave v towards 139.43 before the next meaningful correction should be expected. Once blue wave v is over it will only mark wave one of the larger degree and following the correction from 139.43 towards 141.55 and maybe slightly higher will be wave two, and will be followed by a new powerful decline in wave three.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Short term count

GBP/AUD

Please see my post from March 24 here first.

The S/H/S top has worked out to perfection as did my preferred target at 1.7744. After the low at 1.7733 we have seen a minor rally which does have impulsive characters, but we need a break above minor resistance at 1.7954 to confirm that the bottom is in place for a rally back to 1.8825 and likely above.

Short term I will be looking for support near 1.7800 for a break above 1.7908 and more importantly above 1.7954.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Short term count

Gold

We have now reached the 38.2% corrective target of wave a. I will be looking for support near 1,314.33 to protect the downside for the final rally higher towards 1,340 and possibly higher towards 1,348 before this b wave correction finally comes to an end and wave c lower towards 1,180 takes over.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.09

R2: 141.90

R1: 141.55 - Important Resistance

Current Spot:

S1: 141.29

S2: 141.09 

S3: 140.71

Technical Summary:

It is "Make it or Break it" time. Important resistance at 141.55 needs to hold for a break below 141.29 and more importantly a break below 141.09 to confirm that blue wave v is developing for a move towards at least 139.43. If however, we are to see a break above 141.55 wave i ended at 140.08 and a wave ii correction towards 142.09 is unfolding before lower again. For now I will just have to wait to see whether resistance at 141.55 will hold for the break below 141.29 or not.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Short term count

AUD/NZD

It is possible that we saw a smaller than expected wave ii correction. It only corrected 38.2% of wave i. A more normal correction would have corrected lower towards 1.0639 which marks the 61.8% corrective target of wave i. We could still see a deeper correction towards 1.0639, if the rally we saw to 1.0863 was an X wave, but only a break below support at 1.0720 will confirm that.
No matter if wave iii in its early stages or we need a deeper correction towards 1.0639 before the next powerful rally higher, it is just a question of time before we does move higher.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD - Short term count

AUD/USD

The c wave rally continued to just above the target where wave c = 300% * wave a. We also saw a small overshooting of the channel resistance line, all indications that the c wave rally is over. This also Means that wave 2 is in place just above the 61.8% corrective target of wave 1 and that wave 3 lower towards 0.7947.
Short term I would like to see a break below 0.9308 and more importantly a break below 0.9201 as confirmation that wave 2 is over.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short term count

EUR/GBP

With the break below support at 0.8243 we knew that a little more downside action towards 0.8227 was needed. With a low at 0.8228 just 1 pip above the ideal corrective target. The rally since the 0.8228 low does look impulsive, however, we still need one more rally before we have the first small five wave rally in place. Short term I will look for support at 0.8264 to protect the downside for the final rally higher towards 0.8291 and maybe even 0.8305 to end the first small wave in wave 3 higher towards at least 0.8474 and more likely towards 0.8626.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.55

R2: 141.24

R1: 141.06

Current Spot: 140.90

S1: 140.63

S2: 140.08

S3: 139.43

Technical Summary:

The correction I was looking for became smaller than expected and this indicates, that wave one from 143.47 isn't over yet, therefore I has changed my count slightly and is looking for the final decline in blue wave v towards 139.43 before red wave i is over and red wave ii higher to 141.89 is expected. Short term I expect minor resistance at 141.24 to protect the upside for a break below 140.62 confirming the decline towards 139.43.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD - Short and long term count

EUR/USD

Important support at 1.3643 has protected the downside and we saw a new impulsive rally out of the low at 1.3673. After a short term correction possibly into the 1.3725 - 1.3742 area I will be looking for the next impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.3872 and more likely even higher towards 1.3958 and 1.4097 in wave iii of c as the final rally of the major E wave develops.

My preferred long term Count still shows that a major B-wave triangle is unfolding and we are currently working on the final part of the E-wave of this triangle. As long as support at 1.3643 protects the downside we should continue to look for a move higher towards 1.4197 before wave E finally comes to an end. That said this is not the time to to aggressive as a top could be found any time now.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - Short and long term count.

USD/JPY

We saw the expected follow-through to the downside and has even seen a small break below the first target at 101.72. However, after a small correction towards 102.29 I will be looking for the next powerful decline towards at least 99.43 and more likely lower towards 96.54.

Looking at the larger picture we saw a five wave impulsive rally from 75.56 to 105.44 and is currently correcting this rally. The ideal target in my view is at the 38.2% corrective target of this rally at 94.03, however, we have to be aware of the possibility of a sub-normal correction halting at the 23.6% corrective target at 98.39, but only time will show.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short term count

EUR/GBP

We did see a break above the reflex point at 0.8277 but failed to see a follow-through, which has evolved into extended downside pressure and we are now sitting at my second downside target at 0.8227. We could still see a small spike below this target, but the downside potential should be very limited from here. Short term I would like to see a break above minor resistance at 0.8249 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.8285 as confirmation that wave 2 finally is in place and wave 3 higher towards at least 0.8473.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.61

R2: 141.15

R1: 140.82

Current Spot: 140.72

S1: 140.44

S2: 140.08

S3: 139.81

Technical Summary:

There was no time for the correction unfold further and we saw a direct decline low. The failure to extend the correction was an indication of underlying strength of the trend. This was also seen with the fact that the possible downside target at 141.00 was broken without problem and the decline is extending. Short term I will be looking for resistance at 140.82 for one last decline towards 139.81 before a larger correction should be expected towards 141.89.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD - Medium and short term counts

AUD/USD

We have now entered the target area between 0.9287 - 0.9402, with the ideal target coming in at 0.9355, where wave c, of the expanded flat correction, will be 261.8% times wave a.
Looking at the structure of wave c we can count a nice five wave rally, which would be the expected pattern for wave c. A top should be expected soon for renewed downside pressure, but a break below 0.9201 is needed to confirm that wave c and 2 is in place for a move below 0.8656 towards at least 0.8405 and likely even lower towards 0.7825. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.01

R2: 141.62

R1: 141.40

Current Spot: 141.22

S1: 141.14

S2: 140.82

S3: 140.63

Technical Summary:

Blue wave iii ended a little earlier than expected and blue wave iv is developing. At this point it is most likely that blue wave iv will evolve into a flat correction, which would call for another rally towards 142.01 before lower in blue wave v towards at least 141.00 and likely even lower towards 140.45. Short term a break above minor resistance at 141.62 confirms that the final part of blue wave iv higher to 142.01 is developing.

Elliott wave analysis of DJI - Long term count

Dow Jones Industrial Index

On Friday we saw a slight new high to 16,631.63 and as long as support at 15,340 protect the downside we could see a move slightly higher towards the 161.8% * wave a target at 16,749.
That said, my long term view of a major expanding triangle developing stays the same. I do think that the upside potential from here we be very limited if we didn't see a top on Friday at 16,631.63, but we need a break below 15,340 to confirm that.

Elliott wave count for GBP/USD - Long and short term count

GBP/USD

My preferred count still point for a powerful rally higher soon in wave 3.  However, it seems as we are buliding a series of waves one's and two's, but once the series of wave three's takes over the rally should be very powerful.
For this very bullish count to remain the preferred count important support at 1.6456 needs to protect the downside. Any break below 1.6456 will delay the expected upside pressure for a deeper correction towards 1.6370 before renewed upside pressure should be expected.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/TRY - Long term count

USD/TRY

Wave b of the correction from 2.3897 became a Little more complex than first expected, but none the less we are now in wave c lower towards at least 2.0653, but longer term I will be looking for a deeper correction towards 1.9138. It might be in a double or even triple zig-zag combination, but the focus for now should be towards the downside.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold . Medium term count

Gold

Wave a ended at 1,306.70 just above the reflex point at 1,298.57 and we should now see wave b towards the 1,288 - 1,292 area before a clear impulsive wave c higher towards 1,321 and possibly even higher towards the 61.8% corrective target at 1,348 before red wave c of D lower towards 1,180.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - Short term count

USD/JPY

With a break above resistance at 103.76 the immidiate bearish count was invalidated and the expected decline in wave C lower towards at least 99.44 delayed. However, the decline we have seen from 104.13 does look impulsive and I will be looking for resistance at 103.34 to protect the upside for a continuation lower towards 101.72 and below.
However, a break above 103.34 will delay the expected downside pressure for a move closer to 103.70 before lower again. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 104.13 will invalidate my bearish count for a move closer to 105.44, but this is not my preferred count.