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Monday, March 31, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Long and short term counts


AUD/NZD

My preferred long term count still points to an important bottom being in place with the test of 1.0488. I'm currently looking for a rally towards at least 1.1553, which is the 38.2% corrective target for the decline from 1.3276 to 1.0488. The rally of the 1.0488 low was clearly impulsive (in five waves) and it did break above the reflex point at 1.0919 and the following decline from 1.0946 does look impulsive. However, to confirm that wave 2 is in place we need a break above the minor reflex point at 1.0759 and longer term a break above 1.0789 and more importantly a break above 1.0890 is need to confirm that wave 2 is in place at 1.0519 for a new impulsive rally towards at least 1.1373 and more likely higher towards 1.1553.

Only a break below the starting point of wave 1 at 1.0488 invalidates my count and indicates that the rally to 1.0946 only wave wave 4, but this is not my preferred count.


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