Elliott wave analysis of DJI - Short term count

Dow Jones Industrial Index

My preferred count shows that we should see downside pressure very soon. As long as resistance at 16,505.70 and more importantly resistance at 16,588.25 protects the upside I will be looking for a break below support at 16,126 and more importantly below 16.046 for downside acceleration towards at least 15,525 and possibly much lower.

However, a break above resistance at 16,588.25 will invalidate my bearish count and delay the expected downside pressure for a possible move higher towards the 18,500 - 18,600 area.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short term count

 

 

EUR/GBP

As we saw a break below 0.8286 we knew that a deeper correction towards 0.8268 was developing. We even saw a slightly deeper correction than that as we have seen a test of 0.8243 as the low. However the overall call for renewed upside pressure once this correction from 0.8400 was over is still the dominant picture and I will now be looking for a break above resistance at 0.8331 as the first good indication that wave 3 or blue wave iii higher is developing towards 0.8641 and maybe even higher. During this next impulsive rally I would like to see the base channel resistance line near 0.8426 broken clearly to confirm extension in wave 3 higher.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD - Medium term count

AUD/USD

We have now tested the lower part of the target area between 0.9287 - 0.9401, but I think we will see a deeper test of this area closer to 0.9358 before a top is in place for renewed downside pressure.
At this point only a break below support at 0.9133 will indicate that wave ii is over and wave iii is developing for a break below 0.8656.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Long and short term counts

AUD/NZD

My preferred long term count still points to an important bottom being in place with the test of 1.0488. I'm currently looking for a rally towards at least 1.1553, which is the 38.2% corrective target for the decline from 1.3276 to 1.0488. The rally of the 1.0488 low was clearly impulsive (in five waves) and it did break above the reflex point at 1.0919 and the following decline from 1.0946 does look impulsive. However, to confirm that wave 2 is in place we need a break above the minor reflex point at 1.0759 and longer term a break above 1.0789 and more importantly a break above 1.0890 is need to confirm that wave 2 is in place at 1.0519 for a new impulsive rally towards at least 1.1373 and more likely higher towards 1.1553.

Only a break below the starting point of wave 1 at 1.0488 invalidates my count and indicates that the rally to 1.0946 only wave wave 4, but this is not my preferred count.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/ZAR - Medium term count

USD/ZAR

The correction from red wave iii high at 11,3890 has extended towards the 50% corrective target at 10,5480. With a low just above the ideal target at 10,5414 we could have seen an important bottom, but to indicate that a bottom might be in place we need a break above the short term reflex point at 10,6318 and more importantly we need a break above the larger reflex point at 10,7323. Once this reflex point is broken in an impulsive wave it should be followed by a three wave correction towards the 10,62 - 10,64 area. Longer term a break above 10,9771 to confirm that red wave iv is in place and the final red wave v is unfolding for a move above the top of red wave iii at 11,3890.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - Medium term count.

USD/JPY

I continue to look for a much larger correction from the 105.44 high. The first decline from 105.44 to 100.75 was no clean wave and likely best counted as a leading diagonal as wave A and the following rally from 100.75 to 103.76 corrected an almost perfect 61.8% of wave A and is labled wave B and I'm currently looking for a five wave decline in wave C. Of this five wave decline we have likely seen wave i from 103.76 to 101.20 and wave ii is unfolding, but is very close to its termination. I expect a small spike above 102.98 before the next impulsive downside pressure takes over in wave iii towards at least 100.44 and more likely 98.86. Only a break above the top of wave B at 103.76 invalidates my brearish count. 

Elliott wave analysis for EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.50

R2: 142.11

R1: 141.70

Current Spot: 141.47

S1: 141.22

S2: 140.96

S3: 140.64

Technical Summary:

We saw an attempt to break lower on Friday, but it failed and was followed by a quick rally above 140.95 indicating that the decline only was and x-wave in a complex corrective cycle. I'm now looking for support in the 140.64 - 140.96 area to protect the downside for one last rally higher towards 142.11 and maybe even higher towards 142.50 before renewed downside pressure is seen for a decline towards 136.45.

Elliott wave analysis of Crude Oil - Look for upside acceleration soon

Crude Oil

I'm looking for the ongoing wave 3 to accelerate higher towards 105.22 and beyond. Since the May 2011 higher at 114.81 we have been a major sideways consolidation, which I expect ended at 91.25 and we should now be ready to challenge resistance at 112.22 for a rally towards 122.86 and maybe even back to the 2008 high at 147.27 in a major flat correction, but only time will show.

Short term I expect support at 100.27 will protect the downside, but only a break below important support at 98.82 will invalidate my bullish count.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Wave D of the triangle is unfolding

Gold

I have been looking for the correction since the 1,180 low to be a triangle. Red wave C of the triangle ended at 1,392 and I'm currently looking for red wave D lower towards 1,185. This wave D is expected to unfold in a zig-zag and the reason is that the decline from 1,392 already is in five waves and only zig-zag corrections is composed as 5-3-5.

Short term I will be looking for wave v of A lower towards 1,276 followed by wave B higher towards the top of wave iv of A at 1,342 before the C wave lower.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.04

R2: 140.81

R1: 140.52

Current Spot: 140.38

S1: 140.23

S2: 139.84

S3: 139.33

Technical Summary:

The bears still have the benefit of the doubt, but I would like to see some downside acceleration soon to confirm that they are in the divers seat. Short term I would like to see resistance in the 140.52 - 140.68 protect the upside for a break below support at 140.18 for acceleration lower towards 136.45. That said, as long as we have not seen the acceleration towards the downside we have to acknowledge that the decline from 140.43 just could be an x-wave in a complex correction, if this is the case we should see a break above 140.92 that would call for a move closer to 142.11 and just maybe 142.50 before wave ii is over.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Look for a new rally higher soon.

EUR/GBP

With the break below the 38.2% corrective target of wave iii we should be looking for a continuation towards the 50% corrective target at 0.8294, which should protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 0.8322 as the first good indication that wave iv is over and the final wave v higher towards 0.8410 and more likely higher towards 0.8468.

Only a break below support at 0.8286 (the top of wave i) will indicate that wave i of 3 already ended at 0.8400 and the ongoing correction is wave ii of 3 and wave iii of 3 should be just around the corner. A break below 0.8286 does open for a deeper correction, but ideally the 61.8% corrective target at 0.8268 will protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher.

Elliott wave analysis of NZD/USD - Look for an important long term top soon

NZD/USD

The major B-wave triangle I was looking for has been invalidated after the latest acceleration to the upside. The count shown above is my new preferred long term count. We should be close to exhaustion of the rally from 0.8042 and should see a powerful decline follow once red wave v is finally in place. I would look for red wave v near 0.8723. There is a possibility that red wave v could extend ever higher towards 0.8857, but I would not bet on that outcome.

Short term the first good indication, that red wave v and wave b is in place would be a break below 0.8566 and confirmed by a break below 0.8525.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Is wave iii lower already developing?

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.74

R2: 141.32

R1: 141.05

Current Spot: 140.82

S1: 140.54

S2: 140.27

S3: 139.88

Technical Summary:

The decline below 140.66 and more importantly 140.43 could indicate that a new impulsive decline in wave iii is developing. That said, the correction from 140.43 has been relatively shallow and quick, therefore this decline could be a b-wave of an expanded flat correction. As both counts is more or less with a fifty/fifty chance I will let the benefit of the doubt go to the bears and that wave iii lower could be developing. If this count is correct we should ideally see resistance at 141.05 protect the upside for a break below 140.53 and more importantly a break below 140.30 for a move lower towards 136.45. If however, minor resistance at 141.05 and more importantly resistance at 141.54 is broken then the expanded flat correction scenario is proved to be the correct count and a move higher to 142.11 should be seen before the next impulsive decline takes over.

Elliott wave analysis of Nifty 50 - Wave iii higher developing

Nifty 50

In my last post from January 11 I was look for wave c lower towards 5,700 before renewed upside pressure would take over. As can be seen support at 5,700 was not even close to be tested as wave c ended already at 5,933. Thereby the wave ii correction on corrected 38.2% of wave i, which indicates strength in this market. As the first target for wave iii I will be looking for a move higher towards 7.146 and possibly even higher. Ideally support at 6,429 will protect the downside, but it will take a break below 5,933 to invalidate my bullish count.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/INR - Long term count

USD/INR

I had an request to update my post from January 11, 2014.

I continue to look for red wave c lower towards the 58.64 - 59.04 before red wave iv is in a position where a bottom could be found and renewed upside pressure could be expected for a rally above the former top at 69.22.

Red wave b looks like a triangle and confimrs that the decline from 69.22 is corrective in nature and should be followed by a new impulsive rally once this correction is over.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short and medium term counts

EUR/GBP

The wave iv correction from 0.8400 is still unfolding and will ideally reach the 38.2% corrective target of wave iii at 0.8319 before the final rally in wave v higher towards at least 0.8410 and more likely 0.8468 is seen to end first wave of the larger wave 3 (see the larger count below).

Wave 2 ended perfectly at the 61.8% corrective target of wave 1 and wave 3 higher is now developing.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD - Is a firm bottom in place?

AUD/USD

AUD has displayed strength lately, but do we have a firm bottom in place at 0.8656?

I don't think so. I think we are looking at an expanded flat correction as wave 2 and that renewed downside pressure should be seen soon. If my count is correct we will likely see wave 2 end near 0.9281, but it's possible wave 2 will move closer to 0.9386 before a top is in place and wave 3 lower takes over for a powerful decline towards at least 0.8320 and more likely even lower towards 0.7740.

Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - Has a correction towards 45 begun?

Facebook

Has we finally seen a firm top here at 72.71. My preferred count say yes, but we need a break below 58.95 to confirm the top and that a correction lower towards 45.13 is developing. Not only do we find the bottom of wave IV at 45.13, but it also marks the 50% corrective target of the rally from 17.55 to 72.71.

Short term I would like to see resistance at 66.62 protect the upside for a continuation of the downside pressure towards 59.38 and possibly even lower towards 53.30. To abort the downside pressure it will take a break above 59.69.

Elliott wave analysis of Apple - Look for 613 as the next target

Apple

It seems as wave iii is developing for a rally towards resistance near 613. At 613.13 wave iii of c will be 1.618 time wave i and we should see a flat but shallow wave iv before the final rally into the 620 area to end the double zig-zag correction from 387.21.

Whether the correction to the 620 area will be enough or a third zig-zag correction will unfold is impossible to say at this time, but for now look for a break above minor resistance at 551.18 confirming the next rally higher towards 613.

Elliott wave analysis for EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.11

R2: 141.90

R1: 141.54

Current Spot:141.28

S1: 141.08

S2: 140.69

S3: 140.43

Technical Summary:

The complex correction from 140.43 is still unfolding. I continue to look for this ongoing wave ii towards the target area between 142.11 - 142.50 before the next impulsive decline can be expected. Short term I expect support at 141.08 will protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 141.54, which will confirm a continuation higher towards the ideal target area between 142.11 - 142.40. Once this wave ii correction is over look for a decline to at least 136.45.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short term count

EUR/GBP

I still think the best count is that a flat correction as wave iv is unfolding and if this is the case we should soon see wave c of iv lower towards 0.8316 before the final Fifth wave higher towards at least 0.8415 and likely even higher towards 0.8473 to end wave 1 of one higher degree.
Short term a break below 0.8378 is needed to confirm downside pressure in wave c.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Short term count

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.50

R2: 142.11

R1: 140.90

Current Spot: 141.37

S1: 141.19

S2: 140.90

S3: 140.43

Technical Summary:

The wave ii correction is becoming more complex than first expected. The deep decline from 141.89 have to be counted as an x-wave and that means a new zig-zag correction is developing. However, the ideal target area between 142.11 - 142.50 stays intact. Short term I will be looking for support near 141.19 for the next rally higher towards 141.90 and into the target area between 142.11 - 142.50 before the next real downside pressure.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold - The triangle is still developing.

Gold

Wave C of the wave 4 triangle extended and became a Little stronger than expected, but it has not changed the overall picture and I will be looking for wave D lower towards 1,180 before the final E wave higher towards the 1,284 - 1,309 area. Once this triangle is over look for a break towards the downside and a move lower towards at least 1,040.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD - Short term counts

EUR/USD

With the break above resistance at 1.3846 the decline from 1.3967 is only in three waves and that indicates that the decline from 1.3967 is corrective. But what about the messy small rally from 1.3749 you might ask? I think wave i was a leading diagonal (see the 15 minute chart below). I will now be looking for a break above resistance at 1.3948 as confirmation that the next rally higher towards at least 1.4137 is developing. However, I do think the next rally should be more powerful a lead to a move higher towards 1.4314.

EUR/USD - 15 minute

GBP/USD

Important support at 1.6467 is still protecting the downside and I will be looking for a break above 1.6536 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6569 as indication that a firm low is in place for renewed upside pressure towards 1.6822 and beyond as wave iii higher picks up speed.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/AUD - Possible S/H/S top in place?

GBP/AUD

Zink asked me if a Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top was apparent in this cross. As can be seen on the 4 hourly chart a possible S/H/S top could be in place, but the question is more whether, this will cause a major decline or just be cause a "minor" correction before the next impulsive rally higher. I prefer the later. I will be looking for a decline towards 1.7746 before the next rally higher.

However the decline from 1.8825 isn't the best looking in regards to being impulsive and a ending diagonal could be developing and if this is the case we should not see a move below 1.7865 before the next impulsive rally higher. However, for now we should be looking for more downside pressure.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave ii correction is unfolding.

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 142.50

R2: 142.11

R1: 141.72

Current Spot: 141.38

S1: 141.26

S2: 140.90

S3: 140.43

Technical Summary:

As I predicted on Friday, a low was seen at 140.43 and a correction higher towards 142.11 - 142.50. This expected corrective cycle is unfolding according to my prediction and I expected this corrective target area to be tested soon. Once this correction terminates a renewed downside pressure towards at least 136.45 should be expected. A break below 141.26 will indicate that the corrective cycle has ended and wave iii lower is developing.

Elliott wave analysis for EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 141.92

R2: 141.68

R1: 141.30

Current Spot: 141.12

S1: 140.89

S2: 140.65

S3: 140.43

Technical Summary:

With a slight new low at 140.43 red wave v. As we now have a minor five wave decline from 143.79 we should expect a minor correction higher towards the 142.11 - 142.50 area before the next downside pressure takes us lower towards at least 136.45 and maybe even lower. Longer term I'm still looking for a much bigger correction from the 145.69 high towards the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69 at 126.00.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Correction likely over. Look for renewed upside pressure.

GBP/USD

My long term bullish view is unchanged, calling for a major rally towards 1.9476.

Short term my preferred count shows that wave 3 higher towards at least 1.7538 is developing. That said, the alternate count indicating that wave 1 ended at 1.6822 and not 1.6602 is almost a fifty/fifty with my preferred count. If wave 1 ended at 1.6822 we will likely see a deeper correction in wave 2.

However, as long as the minor support line and the 61.8% corrective target of wave i at 1.6467 continues to protect the downside I will be looking for a break above resistance at 1.6578 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6718 to confirm wave iii is developing for a rally towards at least 1.7409.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD - Short term picture is messy, but look for upside pressure.

EUR/USD

The break below support at 1.3825 was frustrating to the overall count. I have reviewed the bigger picture and I still prefer more upside price action once the correction from 1.3967 is over. However, a break above resistance at 1.3860 is needed to confirm that the decline from 1.3967 was a correction and more upside pressure will be seen.

If however, we sees a break below support at 1.3643 then we must conclude that wave E ended at 1.3967 and a powerful decline will be seen.

Right now the short term Picture is quite messy, but that is not uncommon as we are in the very last part of a major B triangle that ultimately should break towards the downside.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/AUD - At an important juncture

EUR/AUD

Is at a very important juncture testing its long term uptrend line, a clear break below this trend line confirms acceleration lower towards the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 1.1605 to 1.5597 at 1.4072.

Short term a close below the trend line here at 1.5175 and more importantly a break below support at 1.5147 will confirm that wave 3 lower towards at least 1.4646 is developing.
As can be seen for the 4 hourly chart a series of waves one's and two's might be developing. This normally causes a powerful decline if confirmed.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY - Look for a powerful decline once this correction is over.

GBP/JPY

I'm looking for a major correction lower towards at least 153.33 (38.2% correction of the rally from 117.27 - 174.84). As can be seen this correction already does appear pretty complex. I expect the next decline to be impulsive in character as I will be looking for wave c lower, but alternately it could be the third zig-zag correction from the top at 174.84. No matter which outcome turns out to be the correct count we should look for a powerful decline once wave 2 is in place in the 171.30 - 171.66 area.

Elliott wave analysis of Dow Jones Industrial Index

 

Dow Jones Industrial Index

 

My preferred count is still that we have seen a important top at 16,588.25 and that we have seen an impulsive decline from 16,588.25 to 15,340.69 followed by a double zig-zag correction, which took back most of wave 1. However only a break above 16,588.25 will invalidate my immediately bearish count. Even if the former top at 16,588.25 is broken the potential upside should be very limited.

 

Short term I will be looking for a break below minor support at 16,126.29 and more importantly a break below the possible S/H/S neckline at 16,046.99 confirming renewed downside pressure in wave 3.

 

Longer term I'm looking for wave E of a major expanding triangle I have been looking for since late March 2012 (please see my post from March 26 - 2012 here) 



Elliott wave analysis of AUD/NZD - Short term count.

 

AUD/NZD

My preferred count is that we saw an important low at 1.0488. From the 1.0488 low we have seen the first impulsive rally in wave 1 from 1.0488 to 1.0946 and wave 2 likely ended with a deep retracement of wave 1 at 1.0519. Wave 2 is overlapping and does not appear impulsive in my view. However, to confirm that wave 2 is over we need a break above 1.0685 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.0759, which should call for a powerful rally in wave 3 towards at least 1.1270.

Only a break below the former low at 1.0488 will invalidate my bullish count and indicate that we only saw wave 4 at 1.0946 and the final wave 5 is developing.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP - Short term count.

Sorry for not updating the text yesterday, but I was really busy and couldn't find the time. So I will make it up by looking closer at those charts today.

EUR/GBP

Wave c of 2 was a ending diagonal ending at 0.8154 and we have since the 0.8154 low seen two impulsive rallies. The first from 0.8154 to 0.8286 which I count as wave i of a new powerful impulsive wave 3 rally. Wave i was followed by Deep wave ii correction, which corrected 70.7% of wave i. Wave iii was an extended wave and became 1.618 times wave i at 0.8400 and we are currently in wave iv. As wave ii was a pretty simple and Deep wave I will expect that wave iv will be a some kind of flat correction or even a triangle. Therefore I have only counted the decline from 0.8400 to 0.8335 as wave a of iv. However, we have to be aware that it does fulfill all requirements of being a finished wave iv. The ideal target for wave v will be at 0.8481, where wave v is 61.8% of the distance traveled from the start of wave i (0.8154) to the top of wave iii (0.8400) added to the bottom of wave iv. As we do not yet have the bottom of wave iv in place I have placed the bottom at the 38.2% correction target of wave iii at 0.8319.