Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for December 30 - 2013

Daily chart

8 hourly chart

 

EUR/JPY:

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 146.96

R2: 145.69

R1: 145.19 

Current Spot: 144.77

S1: 144.55

S2: 144.37

S3: 144.01

Technical Summary:

We saw an extended rally on Friday, in a very thin Market, with a high at 146.96, which well could mark the top of wave v of 5. If this is the case, we should see a short term rally towards 146.19 followed by a powerful decline towards at least 143.06 and possibly even lower towards 141.73. However, the extension we saw on Friday could have changed the count to a slightly more bullish count, where wave iii of 5 just ended at 146.96, which means we still need wave four and five of 5. If this is the case, then wave iv is developing for a move first higher to 146.19 and then a decline towards at least 142.96 and more likely lower towards 141.26. In both cases we should be looking for a decline, but once we are near 141.00 the outcome of the two counts becomes totally different. A clear break below 140.95 will indicate wave v of 5 did end at 146.96, while a recovery from 141.26 will indicate we only saw wave iii at 146.96



EUR/NZD:

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.7046

R2: 1.6996

R1: 1.6955

Current Spot: 1.6875

S1: 1.6856

S2: 1.6807

S3: 1.6748

Technical Summary:

The clear break above 1.6869 indicates, that blue wave v of the expanded flat correction ended at 1.6807 and a new series of waves one's and two's is developing for the next powerful rally higher towards 1.6996 and higher towards 1.7239. However, a break below 1.6807 will shift the count, so blue wave v ended at 1.6996 and a correction towards 1.6569 is developing, before the next powerful rally should be expected.

As long as support at 1.6807 protects the downside I will give the upside the benefit of the doubt.